6 Financial Advising Trends for 2022 | Financial Advisors

6 Financial Advising Trends for 2022 | Financial Advisors

Traders and economic advisors are not getting into 2022 in the very same headspace as they started off 2021.

They are rethinking a lot of elements of fiscal planning, these types of as what retirement will truly be like and if it truly is worthy of waiting around for. They are also anxious about inflation, volatility and taxes, all of which are factors that will form the fiscal advising landscape heading into 2022.

The coronavirus pandemic, which is entering its 3rd year, introduced lots of of these issues and problems to the forefront of advisors’ and clients’ minds.

For advisors eyeing where the up coming year will guide them, in this article are the prime economical advising tendencies for 2022:

  • Rethinking retirement.
  • “Bucket record living.”
  • Planning for inflation.
  • Considerably less holding, much more momentum.
  • Innovative tax organizing.
  • Hybrid client communications.

Rethinking Retirement

Clients’ experiences for the duration of the coronavirus pandemic were a bit like a retirement test-generate, wrote Joe Coughlin, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s AgeLab, in a current white paper. “According to Dr. Coughlin, for the reason that the pandemic intended we had been investing so significantly time at dwelling, it produced us reevaluate matters like where by we are living, how we work, with whom we invest time, how we get about, what we do for entertaining and how we leverage technologies,” claims Ryan Sullivan, controlling director of used insights at Hartford Resources. As a end result, quite a few Individuals now have a a lot far better thought of what retirement life may possibly really be like.

“Financial specialists can enable consumers discover what classes they figured out throughout the pandemic and use those learnings to their economic organizing and retirement goals,” Sullivan says. He suggests asking clients inquiries such as these about their pandemic experiences:

  • How did they experience about in which they ended up dwelling? 
  • If they worked remotely, what was that experience like? 
  • With whom do they wish they could have invested far more – or significantly less – time?
  • Did they remain busy or had been they speedily bored? 
  • Ended up they pining for travel or content to remain residence? 
  • How significantly did they expend though in lockdown? Was it much more or less than expected?
  • How did they retain their physical and mental health and fitness?

“It can take sensitivity, but helping consumers or potential customers to consider these issues may increase their awareness about what they definitely want in retirement – possibly one thing various than formerly imagined,” Sullivan claims. “And the moment they can photograph it, they can program for it.”

“Bucket Record Residing”

The notion driving “bucket listing living” is uncomplicated: Retirement organizing need to be a lot more about making the most of the journey than focusing solely on the desired destination.

It is really a topic that Brad Levin, handling director and senior wealth advisor at The Colony Group, has been embracing with his shoppers. It is also one he sees “getting to be a major pattern amid the economic advisor group in 2022.”

Levin has observed a shift in client views above the past two several years, fostered in element by the pandemic. “Following nearly two years of constrained travel means, quite a few men and women are on the lookout to journey a lot more, not only in retirement, but significantly more in the near long term as very well,” he suggests. “Some clients are also expressing a desire to retire earlier, although other individuals want to optimize their pleasure of lifetime right before achieving retirement.”

This won’t imply purchasers and advisors can stop organizing for the foreseeable future – advisors nevertheless want to assist consumers strategy for a retirement that could past upwards of 30 decades. But you can also aid shoppers develop options to fund satisfying everyday living activities alongside their journey to retirement.

“Exhibiting consumers what it will get to notice these goals can direct to improved economical assurance and assist them really feel they can give them selves authorization to delight in now although also prudently planning for tomorrow,” Levin says.

Planning for Inflation

Inflation will keep on to be a crucial problem in 2022, states Brian Stivers, financial commitment advisor and founder of Stivers Fiscal Products and services. As these types of, “buyers and advisors alike will be hunting to reallocate cash to investments that have the potential to do effectively in the course of inflationary occasions,” he claims. “Historically, these have been sectors these types of as electricity, utilities, shopper staples, wellness care, banking and other inflation-pleasant sectors.”

Investors with reduced danger tolerances may be wanting to flock to protection not just mainly because of inflation, but also from COVID-19 and the midterm elections. Quite a few advisors, minimal-chance traders or individuals with constrained working experience may desire to wait out this inflationary period and see how the midterm elections could influence the market place, Stivers claims. This might result in a much larger motion into U.S. Treasurys, brief-phrase preset instruments, and even cash markets and lender accounts.

“1 of my extended-expression consumers normally claims, in uncertain financial moments that, ‘Zero is his hero,'” Stivers claims, which means his consumer is far more anxious about staying away from reduction than striving for obtain. He adds, “2022 could be one of individuals several years where by lots of investors and advisors determine ‘zero is their hero.'”

Significantly less Hold, Much more Momentum

The invest in-and-maintain technique has been the most well-known financial investment technique of modern many years, but Stivers thinks the recent industry tumults may change this in 2022. “The volatility of 2018 in the sector is probable to boost the reputation of momentum and trending strategies all over 2022,” he says.

The thought guiding sector momentum and market trending approaches is that investors can use financial and market data to decide if the foreseeable future pattern is a great or negative time to be in the marketplace, Stivers says. You can also use information to establish in which the momentum is in the sector sectors at any specified time.

“Consequently, it would make sense to reallocate into equities when the development, and momentum, is transferring upwards and to reallocate to a defensive place, this kind of as bonds or money, when the momentum, or trending facts, is tracking downwards,” he states. This, he predicts, is much more of how investors and advisors will be thinking about investing in 2022.

Advanced Tax Scheduling

But there is certainly a ticking clock on these exclusions and exemptions: “Beneath the recent regulation, this greater estate and gift tax exemption will sunset on Dec. 31, 2025 with the exemption volume dropping to the prior exemption quantity – projected to be between $6 and $7 million per human being – except the guidelines are modified prior to that time,” says Marla Petti, a accredited general public accountant, accredited monetary planner and senior prosperity advisor at MAI Funds Administration. This can make 2022 an perfect time to take advantage of the increased exemption, which can be made use of all through a client’s life span, she claims.

“We are employing several gifting procedures that might include the use of irrevocable trusts, including grantor retained annuity trusts, spousal life span obtain trusts, intentionally faulty trusts or irrevocable daily life insurance plan trusts,” she says.

Hybrid Shopper Interaction Versions

The pandemic pressured quite a few advisors to adopt a digital conference design and style with clientele, but advisors may possibly not want to be too swift to abandon the practice. “As items go on to normalize in 2022, money industry experts really should take into consideration permanently implementing a hybrid design that blends in-human being customer interactions with continued virtual engagement,” Sullivan suggests.

He details to the quite a few added benefits of providing ongoing on the web interactions, these kinds of as enabling advisors and purchasers to use their time extra competently and producing it possible to “see” each other on a a lot more frequent basis. Digital conferences also make it much easier for advisors to interact with other persons in their clients’ networks, such as household, good friends or other experts, he claims.

“The diploma to which each customer prefers virtual conferences to in-individual encounters will be different, including that some may want no digital interactions,” he claims. “Nonetheless, supplying an on line alternative can set a fiscal expert aside and could be an vital differentiator for active, tech-savvy potential clients.”

For a hybrid communication design to be effective, he states, economical advisors will need to have to put the same amount of money of thought and effort and hard work into refining digital conference ordeals as they do with in-individual conferences. “One’s lighting, track record, eye get hold of, entire body language and vocal tone are just as significant online as in particular person, if not additional so,” he claims.

He adds a person be aware of warning: Do not guide your digital conferences back-to-again. “It can be relatively disorienting to stare continually into a webcam and converse to a computer system monitor,” he suggests. “Give on your own – and your eyes – an occasional crack.”

Stock futures climb after strong economic data helps ease Omicron concerns

Stock futures climb after strong economic data helps ease Omicron concerns

The S&P 500 closed at a record on Thursday in a pre-holiday rally along with the Dow and Nasdaq, buoyed by positive data that suggested the Omicron variant was less likely to lead to hospitalizations. The indexes recouped losses from earlier this week after investors shrugged off worries the variant would stunt economic recovery.

The S&P closed at an all time high of 4,725.72, while the Dow ended the week just shy of 36,000. The Nasdaq Composite also closed 130 points up, or 0.85{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

“One of the ways pandemics end is significant mutation of the virus. It looks like Omicron may be our friend in that regard, significant mutations different enough from the parent that it doesn’t make people as sick,” True Health Initiative President Dr. David Katz told Yahoo Finance Live.

In other positive news on the COVID-19 front, Merck (MRK) received authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its at-home COVID-19 drug, just one day after Pfizer (PFE) was also approved for use of its own treatment.

The pill developed by Merck in conjunction with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, called molnupiravir, was shown to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by around 30{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in clinical trial data. Pfizer’s pill was reported to be 90{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths in high-risk patients.

Shares of Merck closed down 0.54{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in early trading at $75.75 a piece, while Pfizer’s stock closed at $58.66 per share, down 1.49{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

Investors weighed a trove of economic releases ahead of the holiday weekend.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 205,000, sustaining a downward trend from the highs of their pandemic peak and reflecting labor market tightness brought on by a demand for workers heading into the new year. The latest print brings the four-week moving average for new claims to its lowest in 52 years, ticking up by 2,750 week-over-week to reach 206,250.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly four decades as shoppers confront rising inflation levels ahead of the holidays.

“Workers have a lot of power, and that’s likely to result in continued wage gains,” Girard chief investment officer Timothy Chubb told Yahoo Finance. “What worries us from an inflation standpoint is, at what point do we potentially see some of those inflation risks sort of hand the baton to the labor market?”

Meanwhile, November sales of new U.S. homes jumped 12.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to a seven-month high of 744,000, buoyed by low mortgage rates and higher demand in the housing industry.

U.S. durable goods orders rose by 2.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in November, up from the prior month, boosted by a sharp rise in aircraft orders.

In Wednesday’s trading session, investors weighed an upbeat print on consumer confidence levels and the release of an upwardly revised estimate for domestic GDP, placing all three major averages in the green after a mixed open.

The Conference Board reported consumer confidence increased by a greater-than-expected margin in December, with the headline index at 115.8 during the month and higher than Bloomberg’s consensus estimates of 111.0. In November, the index had a reading of 111.9, revised from an initial report of 109.5. Meanwhile, the nation’s gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in the third quarter in the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis after the initial report of 2.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

“We’ve been saying that this is definitely a buy the dip sort of market because we expect more earnings upgrades to come,” Anik Sen, PineBridge Investments global head of equities told Yahoo Finance Live. “We think that the real debate should be about the length and strength of the economic cycle ahead.”

Thursday’s market gains may be the start of the year-end Santa Claus Rally — one in which stocks climb higher in the final seven trading sessions of a year, plus the first two trading days of the new year. Starting today, traders are looking to see whether nearly a century of data will uphold.

For reasons unclear, over the past 92 years, the S&P 500 gained 77{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of the time during the year-end rally period, according to data from Sundial Capital Research. The average gain in this nine-day trading period tallied 2.66{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

4:00 p.m. ET: S&P 500 closes at a record

Here were the main moves as markets closed ahead of the Christmas weekend:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +29.16 (+0.62{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,725.72

  • Dow (^DJI): +196.57 (+0.55{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,950.46

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +131.48 (+0.85{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,653.37

  • Crude (CL=F): +$1.13 (+1.55{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $73.89 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$7.90 (+0.44{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,810.10 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.6 bps to yield 1.4930{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

12:32 p.m. ET: S&P 500 climbs to new high

Here were the main moves during intraday trading:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +32.83 (+0.70{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,729.39

  • Dow (^DJI): +230.23 (+0.64{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,984.12

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +128.35 (+0.83{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,650.25

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.92 (+1.26{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $73.68 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$6.80 (+0.38{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,809.00 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.6 bps to yield 1.4930{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

10:21 a.m. ET: New homes sales rise to highest since April

November sales of new U.S. homes jumped 12.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to a seven-month high. The Census Bureau reported that new home sales rose 82,000 last month from October to 744,000, buoyed by low mortgage rates and higher demand in the housing industry.

Forecast ranged between 737,000-850,000 across 51 estimates, with a median of 770,000, according to Bloomberg data.

The median sales price of a new home sold in November was $416,900, 14.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} higher than a year ago.

9:30 a.m. ET: Markets open higher following economic releases

Here were the main moves in markets at open Thursday morning:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +10.69 (+0.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,707.25

  • Dow (^DJI): +102.67 (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,856.56

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +180.81 (+1.18{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,521.89

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.12 (+0.16{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $72.88 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$5.30 (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,807.50 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.5 bps to yield 1.4620{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

9:07 a.m. ET: Consumer prices accelerate, while spending slows

U.S. consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly four decades. The Commerce Department reported an increase of 5.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} over the past 12 months, reflecting the fastest gain in 39 years as shoppers confront rising inflation levels ahead of the holidays. 

Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in November, a slowdown from last month’s print of 1.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. The figure, which accounts for 70{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of economic activity, comes amid the latest wave of COVID-19 cases, hinting at the possibility of a broader economic slowdown. 

Personal incomes rose 0.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in November, down slightly from the 0.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in October.

8:42 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders beat expectations

U.S. durable goods orders rose by 2.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in November, up from the prior month, boosted by a sharp rise in aircraft orders.

Core capital goods orders, a measure of business investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, fell 0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} after an upwardly revised 0.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in October, according to Bloomberg.

The median Bloomberg estimates projected a 0.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in core capital goods orders and a 1.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rise in total durables bookings.

8:30 a.m. ET: First-time unemployment filings remain at pre-pandemic levels

Initial jobless claims remained at pre-pandemic lows, sustaining a downward trend from the highs of their coronavirus peak and reflecting labor market tightness brought on by a demand for workers heading into the new year.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday that new initial jobless claims totaled 205,000 for the week ending December 18, on par with consensus estimates. The latest print brings the four-week moving average for new claims to its lowest in 52 years, ticking up by 2,750 week-over-week to reach 206,250.

“The direction in the labor market recovery remains positive, with demand still strong,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note. “Labor shortages are persisting, preventing a stronger recovery, although these appeared to ease somewhat in November.”

7:00 a.m. ET: Contracts on Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq edge higher ahead of open

Here’s how markets were moving in early trading on Thursday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +13.75 points (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,699.75

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +107.00 points (+0.30{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,739.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +34.75 points (+0.21{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 16,204.50

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.20 (+0.27{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $72.96 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$5.20 (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,807.40 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.08 bps to yield {1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} 130.66

6:01 p.m. Wednesday ET: Stock futures flat ahead of overnight trading

Here’s how markets were moving in late trading on Wednesday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +4.00 points (+0.09{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,690.00

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +19.00 points (+0.05{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,651.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +11.05 points (+0.07{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 16,181.25

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.30 (+0.41{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $73.06 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$3.00 (+0.17{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,805.20 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.06 bps to yield {1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} 161.4375

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Stock market news live updates: December 21, 2021

Stock market news live updates: December 21, 2021

Markets rallied on Tuesday, closing higher in a major comeback from the biggest three-day drop since September 30.

In a turnaround from earlier losses, all three major indexes closed up more than 1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} each, with the Dow gaining 560 points, or 1.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. The S&P also rose 1.78{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in an 81-point jump, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 360 points, or 2.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

The moves follow news of federal involvement to mitigate Omicron and imminent authorization of an at-home COVID-19 treatment after renewed fears around the variant spooked traders in previous sessions, igniting concerns that rising case numbers could derail economic growth and worsen inflationary pressures.

President Biden also announced in remarks Tuesday afternoon that he was considering a reversal of travel restrictions related to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The U.S. implemented a ban on travel from South Africa along with seven other neighboring countries upon discovery of the strain.

The FDA is expected to authorize at-home treatment pills for the virus from Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK). Shares of Pfizer closed down 3.39{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} at $58.95 a piece, while Merck traded at $75.43 per share, down 1.14{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

TCW Group Senior Portfolio Manager Diane Jaffee told Yahoo Finance Live earlier that despite immediate sell-offs that typically happen upon new variants or rising cases, the markets always resume their climb once investors get comfortable with vaccination rates, news of treatments and how cases are resolved.

“There is that fear happening in investors’ minds — rightly so,” Jaffee said. “But there is that underlying strength to the U.S. economy that cannot be denied.”

“On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management told Yahoo Finance Live.

As Americans scramble to look for COVID-19 tests amid the recent surge, Rite Aid (RAD) has outlined plans to close underperforming locations in a bid to further improve its profits. The pharmacy said Tuesday that it will shutter up to 63 stores in coming months, with expectations to pad earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by $25 million.

Shares of Rite Aid closed up 21{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} at $15.05 a piece.

Even with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are tuning into a packed economic release schedule, and new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.

The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month-over-month rate in November.

4:01 p.m. ET: Stocks jump to end 3-day losing streak

Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:01 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +81.22 (+1.78{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,649.24

  • Dow (^DJI): +560.97 (+1.61{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,493.13

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +360.14 (+2.40{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,341.09

  • Crude (CL=F): +$2.83 (+4.12{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $71.44 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$6.00 (-0.33{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,788.60 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +6.8 bps to yield 1.4870{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

3:15 p.m. ET: Biden weighs easing of travel restrictions

President Joe Biden in remarks Tuesday afternoon said he was considering a reversal of travel restrictions related to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The U.S. implemented a ban on travel from South Africa along with seven other neighboring countries upon discovery of the strain.

“Look, remember why I said we put the travel ban on—to see how much time we had before it hit here so we could begin to decide what we needed by looking at what was happening in other countries. And we’re passed that now,” the president said.

Markets each continued to extend gains ahead of close. The Nasdaq was up 323.88 points, or 2.16{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, and the Dow continued its climb, rising 1.62{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to 567.13 during intraday trading. The S&P 500 was up 1.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

12:35 p.m. ET: Stocks U-turn from three-day drop in intraday rally

Here’s how stocks were trading during the midday session as of 12:35 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +62.64 (+1.37{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,630.66

  • Dow (^DJI): +531.68 (+1.52{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,463.84

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +235.50 (+1.57{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,216.44

  • Crude (CL=F): +$2.57 (+3.75{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $71.18 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$7.30 (-0.41{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,787.30 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +6.5 bps to yield 1.4840{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

10:39 a.m. ET: AT&T greenlights Microsoft acquisition of ad unit

AT&T (T) has agreed to sell its Xandr global advertising platform to Microsoft (MSFT). The telecom giant said in an announcement of the deal Tuesday that Xandr’s technology “strategically complements Microsoft’s current advertising offerings.” Further details about the acquisition were not immediately disclosed.

The move comes amid investor concerns that AT&T was struggling to pay off its debt after the firm poured billions into becoming a one-stop-shop media company, satellite TV provider and advertising platform. Xandr was created under former AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson following the $1.6 billion purchase of advertising company AppNexus in 2018.

Shares of AT&T were up 2.07{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in early trading to $24.69 a piece, while Microsoft traded at $320.05 per share, up 0.04{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. 

9:53 a.m. ET: Memory chip maker rallies after earnings beat

Shares of Micron Technology (MU) climbed after the maker of memory chips surpassed analyst estimates for second-quarter sales. The company is anticipating chip shortages will ease in the second half of 2022 and businesses are positioned to rebound.

The stock ticked up as much as 9.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, posting its biggest intraday percentage gain since April 2020, according to Bloomberg. Shares traded at $88.80 a piece in the early session, up 8.25{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} after market open.

Micron is “a compellingly growth at a reasonable price (GARP) beneficiary of secular data center, 5G, metaverse, auto trends and a catch-up candidate after underperforming” BMO Capital Markets wrote.

9:30 a.m. ET: Markets rebound from three-day sell-off

Here were the main moves in markets as of 9:30 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +39.48 (+0.86{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,607.50

  • Dow (^DJI): +299.00 (+0.86{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,231.16

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +153.45 (+1.02{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,134.40

  • Crude (CL=F): +$1.77 (+2.58{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $70.38 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$0.40 (+0.02{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,795.00 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +5.1 bps to yield 1.4700{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

7:00 a.m. Tuesday ET: Higher futures point to ‘seesaw market’ action

Here were the main moves in markets ahead of Tuesday’s open:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 45 points (+0.99{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,603.50

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 319 points (+0.92{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,132.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 176.5 points (+1.13{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,798.00

6:00 p.m. Monday ET: Futures contracts sink

Here were the main moves ahead of the overnight trading session:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 13.75 points (+0.30{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,572.25

  • Dow futures (YM=F): 102 points (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 34,915.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 69.75 points (+0.45{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,691.00

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Stock futures open little changed

Stock futures open little changed

Stock futures opened flat Tuesday night immediately after a recovery rally for the duration of the regular investing working day, with the major equity indexes recouping some losses soon after a few consecutive classes of declines. 

Contracts on the S&P 500 ticked up. Futures on the Nasdaq were very little changed, after the tech-hefty index outperformed to soar 2.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} all through Tuesday’s session. 

With buying and selling volume comparatively mild all through the holiday break-shortened week, buyers have ongoing to evaluate a multitude of developments on the Omicron variant and its likely effects on financial exercise. These updates have come along with expectations for tighter financial coverage upcoming calendar year from the Federal Reserve. 

Omicron has overtaken other coronavirus variants to become the dominant strain in the U.S., and now accounts for about a few-quarters of new bacterial infections. From this backdrop, President Joe Biden on Tuesday declared a sequence of new actions to deal with the virus, together with opening further federal COVID-19 testing and vaccination websites and sending 500 million at-property immediate exams to Us citizens for free beginning upcoming month. 

“I feel this is a great time to remind everybody that the sector is a major indicator. So the market is heading to go down, the industry is going to bottom in advance of the undesirable news peaks,” Liz Younger, SoFi head of expenditure approach, told Yahoo Finance Are living on Tuesday. “We most likely haven’t read all of the bad news however. We unquestionably haven’t hit a peak in the Omicron cases.” 

“But what we’re seeing in the action nowadays is that, we’ve experienced 3 times of a offer-off. And some of that I think was overdone, in particular in a ton of these parts that are positioned to do well in a reopening atmosphere,” she included. “You have to have some income in the marketplace in parts that must do perfectly in that distinct way. Airlines are just one of those, cyclicals are additional of these. When we look at the pattern in the market these days, I feel this helps make feeling for what’s ahead for the upcoming 6 to 12 months.”

Other strategists agreed that investors really should brace for much more choppiness heading into the conclusion of the calendar year. 

“I believe you by natural means are receiving a tiny bit of this bounce immediately after we have experienced a few choppy sessions. But also the market is striving to rate and digest the new data we’re getting in this article,” Anna Han, Wells Fargo securities equity strategist, instructed Yahoo Finance Reside on Tuesday. “We had some information on Build Again Superior obtaining delayed, we have much more data on Omicron. These are the issues you’re seeing blend with reduced liquidity as we get into 12 months-stop, so we’re not amazed to see the volatility.” 

Throughout a question and response session through his remarks Tuesday, Biden mentioned he and Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) have been “likely to get a thing performed” on the White House’s about $1.8 trillion Construct Again Far better social coverage invoice. Manchin experienced explained to Fox News earlier this week he could not back the laws in element given persistent inflation issues, suggesting the monthly bill would be scuttled in absence of assistance from the moderate Democratic lawmaker. 

6:10 p.m. ET Tuesday: Inventory futures open up tiny adjusted

Here’s where markets were trading as the overnight session kicked off Tuesday evening: 

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +1 issue (+.02{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,641.75

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +19.00 factors (+.05{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,400.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -1.75 details (-.01{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,978.25

Photo by: NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 12/16/21 Atmosphere at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 16, 2021 in New York.

Image by: NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 12/16/21 Environment at the New York Inventory Exchange (NYSE) on December 16, 2021 in New York.

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Abide by her on Twitter

Stocks sink amid virus concerns, Manchin’s blow to Build Back Better

Stocks sink amid virus concerns, Manchin’s blow to Build Back Better

Stocks fell on Monday at the start of a holiday-shortened week of trading, with investors considering renewed virus-related restrictions overseas and prospects that a significant social policy bill may be scuttled. 

The S&P 500, Dow Nasdaq each dropped by nearly 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} during intraday trading. Treasury yields fell as investors piled into safe haven assets, and the benchmark 10-year yield held below 1.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, spiked more than 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to hover above 25. 

U.S. crude oil prices sank 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to trade below $69 per barrel as restrictions mounted in Europe, stoking jitters around energy demand. Countries from Germany to Ireland imposed curfews or travel restrictions in recent days given the rapidly spreading new variant. And the Netherlands over the weekend announced a nationwide lockdown of non-essential stores, bars and restaurants until Jan. 14. As of this weekend, the Omicron variant had been reported in about 89 countries, with cases doubling every 1.5 to 3 days. 

Renewed fears over the economic impact of the Omicron variant compounded with last week’s concerns for investors around the prospects of tighter monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve accelerating its rate of asset-purchase tapering and signaling three interest rate hikes could be coming next year. Last week, each of the three major indexes posted steep weekly losses. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and the S&P 500 and Dow each dropped by nearly 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the week. 

Still, other updates around the effect of current COVID-19 vaccines on the variant were more upbeat. Moderna (MRNA) said Monday that a booster, or a third dose, of its shot increased Omicron neutralizing antibody levels. This echoed results from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) from earlier this month about the effectiveness of their vaccine’s third dose on neutralizing Omicron. Shares of Moderna gained more than 7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} ahead of the opening bell. 

Investors also digested the unexpected news that Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) would not support President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better social policy bill. Manchin, speaking on Fox News Sunday, said he had discussed with Democratic House and Senate leaders and Biden, but was unable to come to an agreement on the bill given concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic. 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki released a statement calling Manchin’s comments “a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position,” and said the administration would work to move forward with the legislation next year. 

Still, Goldman Sachs this weekend slashed its quarter GDP forecasts for 2022 following Manchin’s withdrawal of support for the bill. The economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said they expected the “fiscal impulse will be somewhat more negative” than previously expected next year, in absence of the spending on social and climate-related policies included in the bill. The firm lowered its U.S. GDP forecast to 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the first quarter of 2022, to 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from 3.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the second quarter, and to 2.75{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the third quarter. 

4:04 p.m. ET: Stocks end lower amid renewed Omicron concerns: Dow drops 433 points, or 1.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:04 p.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -52.61 (-1.14{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,568.03

  • Dow (^DJI): -433.28 (-1.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,932.16

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -188.74 (-1.24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 14,980.94

  • Crude (CL=F): -$2.20 (-3.10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $68.66 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$15.50 (-0.86{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,789.40 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +1.7 bps to yield 1.4190{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

11:41 a.m. ET: Stocks extend losses, Dow drops nearly 700 points

The three major indexes extended losses heading into the afternoon session, building on overnight declines as virus-related concerns flared anew. 

The Dow dropped more than 650 points, or about 1.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, shortly before noon in New York. The Nasdaq declined by just over 1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, and the S&P 500 was also down about 1.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. 

All 11 major sectors were in the red in the S&P 500, with the cyclical energy, financials and materials sectors leading the way lower. Consumer staples, utilities and healthcare outperformed, though these sectors were also lower during the session.

In the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Goldman Sachs, The Travelers Cos. and Caterpillar underperformed. 

10:28 a.m. ET: Oracle plans to buy Cerner Corp. for $28.3 billion in largest-ever acquisition for software giant 

Oracle (ORCL) announced on Monday it planned to buy Cerner Corp., an electronic medical records company, for $28.3 billion. This would be the largest-ever deal for Oracle. 

The deal is expected to close next year, and would give Oracle access to Cerner’s trove of software used to record healthcare data electronically. Cerner shareholders will receive $95 in cash for each share held, which marks a premium of nearly 6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} compared to Friday’s closing prices for the stock. 

Oracle shares were down by 2.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} following the announcement, underperforming the broader market during the session. Oracle shares were up 49{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the year-to-date through Friday’s close. 

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower

Here’s where markets opened Monday morning: 

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -61.45 points (-1.33{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,559.19

  • Dow (^DJI): -454.32 points (-1.28{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,911.12

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -237.69 points (-1.53{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 14,942.55

  • Crude (CL=F): -$3.10 (-4.37{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $67.76 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$7.10 (-0.39{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,797.80 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.7 bps to yield 1.385{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

7:45 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures point to a sharply lower open

Here’s where markets were trading as of Friday morning ahead of the opening bell:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -52.25 points (-1.13{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,557.75

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -366 points (-1.04{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 34,886.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -208.5 points (-1.32{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,579.50

  • Crude (CL=F): -$2.20 (-3.10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $68.66 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$6.50 (-0.36{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,798.40 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.7 bps to yield 1.385{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}

Photo by: NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 12/16/21 Atmosphere at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 16, 2021 in New York.

Photo by: NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx 2021 12/16/21 Atmosphere at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 16, 2021 in New York.

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter

One stat shows how hard it is to pick market-beating stocks

One stat shows how hard it is to pick market-beating stocks

A version of this post was originally published on TKer.co.

Picking stocks in an attempt to beat market averages is an incredibly challenging and sometimes money-losing effort. In fact, most professional stock pickers aren’t able to do this on a consistent basis.¹

One of the reasons for this is that most stocks don’t deliver above-average returns.

According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, only 22{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index itself from 2000 to 2020.

“When a randomly chosen stock has roughly one chance in five of beating an index fund, successful stock selection is very difficult,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote earlier this year.

Over that measurement period, the S&P 500 gained 322{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} while the median stock rose by just 63{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

It’s worth noting that if you had a portfolio of stocks consisting of mostly underperformers and a few outperformers, this wouldn’t necessarily mean you’d be underperforming the index.

“This is because stock market returns tend to be positively skewed,” Lazzara noted. “Rather than being symmetrically distributed around an average, return distributions typically have a very long right tail; a relatively small number of excellent performers has a disproportionate influence on the market’s overall return.”² (emphasis added)

In other words, if your outperformers are way out on the right tail, then they might more than offset all of the underperformance of the other stocks.

Unfortunately, no one has a great track record at identifying the stocks that’ll become “excellent performers.”

And 2021 hasn’t strayed too far from this trend.

In commentary circulated on Friday, Lazzara observed that only 42{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of S&P 500 stocks outperformed the index through November. The median stock was up 19{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, whereas the index was up 23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

To be clear: There’s nothing wrong with investing in specific businesses you believe in or stocks you think offer some extraordinary value.³

However, if your intention is to beat the market, you should manage your expectations.

ICYMI, here’s some recent stuff from TKer:

  • In markets, when everyone’s worried about the same thing… well… then it’s probably too late to start worrying about it now. (Link)

  • Everyone was surprised to see corporations report record profit margins this year despite inflation. Well, guess what. Margins are projected to expand again in 2022. (Link)

  • What happened in the stock market this year won’t tell you much about what’ll happen next year. (Link)

Rearview 🪞

📉 Stock market slide: The S&P 500 fell 1.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} last week, closing at 4620.64. It’s now up 20.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} since the beginning of the year. If you’re worried that this year’s strong returns means trouble for next year, read this.

🦅 Fed gets hawkish: On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would double the pace at which it would taper its quantitative easing program. Furthermore, it signaled that it could hike interest rates three times next year. Yes, this means less stimulus from the central bank. But keep in mind this is happening because because the economy is in good shape.

🇪🇺 🇬🇧 Meanwhile across the pond: On Thursday, the European Central Bank said it was dialing back stimulus but not quite as aggressively as the Fed. The Bank of England, however, raised interest rates on Thursday in a move to contain inflationary pressures.

🏘 Home construction starts jump: Housing starts jumped 11.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month-over-month in November to an annualized rate of 1.68 million units, the Census reported. This should help bring some relief to the housing shortage. In a separate report, the National Association of Homebuilders found homebuilder sentiment improved in December.

🛍 Retail sales climb, sorta: Retail sales in the U.S. climbed by 0.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month-over-month in November. However, this largely seems to be driven by inflation. “Adjusted for the 0.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in the CPI index, real retail sales actually fell 0.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on the month,” Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. This metric will be something to watch, but keep in mind that retail sales levels are still waaaaay above pre-pandemic levels.

🎈Wholesale prices are still rising: On Tuesday, we learned the producer price index rose by 0.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month-over-month in November. This reflects a 9.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase from a year ago, the biggest annual jump since November 2010. Producer prices reflect what businesses pay for the materials that go into the goods they eventually sell to their customers. And while businesses will make an effort to absorb some of those higher costs, they’ll pass some of the costs on through consumer price hikes.

A good sign in the supply chain: IHS Markit published the preliminary results of its purchasing managers index survey, a proxy for business activity. From the firm’s chief economist Chris Williamson: “Manufacturing output growth even picked up slightly amid a marked easing in the number of supply chain delays, which also helped to take pressure off raw material prices.“

🤑 Reddit is going public: The popular news aggregator and constellation of forums revealed on Wednesday its intention to offer shares in the public stock markets. However, it did not reveal how many shares would be offered or at what price they would be offered. In August, the company said it was worth $10 billion.

Up the road 🛣

The year is slowly coming to an end. The U.S. financial markets will be closed on Friday, December 24 for the Christmas holiday. There are a handful of economic reports due this week. A notable one will be the November personal income and spending report released on Thursday morning. It comes with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation: the core personal consumption expenditures price index.

Spending will be watched closely in the wake of the weak retail sales report (see above). The inflation metric should confirm that prices are rising at their fastest pace in years, but keep in mind that this is something that the Fed acknowledged with its hawkish tone last Wednesday.

¹ This is not news for many investors. It’s why passively managed index funds have been ballooning.

² This helps explain Stock market truth No. 4: Stocks offer asymmetric upside.

³ There are stock-picking models out there that have outperformed the market during certain periods in the past, and some of these models will probably work during certain periods in the future. But if any of these were consistent (and known), everyone would be using them.

A version of this post was originally published on TKer.co.

Sam Ro is the author of TKer.co. Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo.

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