The volatile but never boring market for Bitcoin (BTC) has been whipsawed in recent days, as investors ponder whether there are better returns to be had in other cryptocurrencies, even as a new COVID-19 variant and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook shake up the landscape.
With news of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 unsettling investors, Bitcoin shed over 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on Tuesday as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropped several hints that the central bank is growing more attentive to inflationary risks, and may even accelerate its plans to pull back on stimulative bond purchases.
In theory, the rise of a new variant would prompt the Fed to err on the side of more stimulus, which should benefit cryptocurrencies. Still, Bitcoin sold off sharply along with other risk assets last week, and has yet to challenge its record high near $68,000 set earlier this month, off by more than 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} since hitting that peak.
To be certain, Bitcoin is still firmly entrenched in bull market territory. However, other crypto assets, some notably smaller and higher-risk, are seeing growing investment flows, and may be drawing money away from Bitcoin holdings.
Jon Wolfenbarger, a veteran equities analyst, told Yahoo Finance this week that he’s using the 250 day-moving average (DMA) to judge whether crypto and other assets might begin long term turns for the worse.
While stocks, bonds and commodities still traded above their 250 DMAs on Friday, Wolfenbarger cautioned that “there has been enough damage done recently to tell us that we need to be very vigilant for continued weakness that could trip bear market signal,” even if the larger uptrend remains intact, he said.
During the downturn, notable Bitcoin whales like El Salvador, the largest nation state holder of BTC, which is planning to issue sovereign BTC bonds; and MicroStrategy, the largest publicly listed U.S. company, both used the recent correction as a buying opportunity.
‘Further down the risk-curve’
A recent trend indicates more investors are hunting for crypto trading opportunities outside Bitcoin.
Ether (ETH) — a major “Web 3.0” contender integral to the boom in nonfungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance and the Metaverse — has logged gains higher than BTC, roughly doubling its performance over the last week.
Meanwhile, higher risk meme-coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Shiba Inu coin (SHIB-USD) are posting even larger gains. The latter is up over 16{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on the day, coinciding with its listing today on the U.S. based cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken.
At least a few crypto investors consider Bitcoin safe haven asset of sorts, largely because of stimulative government policies that feed inflation and devaluation, but its price action suggests its more closely linked to other risk-sensitive assets. Added to that, data suggests that money is rotating out of Bitcoin into other speculative cryptos.
This pattern is best captured in the ether/bitcoin trading pair, which is trading near levels not seen since 2018, according to Trading View.
“A break-out of ETH/BTC would further support the thesis of an observable rotation out of BTC and into more speculative alts[coins],” the asset manager Fundstrat wrote in a research note Monday.
Beyond speculation, ETH is also used to pay transaction fees on the Ethereum blockchain. Its price action relative to Bitcoin also shows why lesser known cryptocurrencies built on top of Ethereum, especially within DeFi, are seeing the most significant gains over the last few weeks.
“When the market is moving and certain sectors are doing well, as they are currently in DeFi assets, then traders add risk and allocate out of the safe haven [bitcoin]” said Bryan Hernandez, President of the DeFi trading app, Structure.
And the initial buying in these smaller cryptocurrencies is much more speculative according to Hernandez.
“Because smaller DeFi assets tend to be less liquid, they are more affected by moves from powerful players like big VC funds or certain market makers,” he added. “The access to credit that these players have gives them an ability to really push the price to new levels that then create awareness and FOMO buying.”
Other cryptocurrencies connected to the metaverse via virtual platforms The Sandbox and Decentraland, have seen swings of more than 50{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and 25{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, respectively, over the last several days.
Contrary to a speculative frenzy, the rotation from Bitcoin to smaller cryptocurrencies suggests a degree of market health according to Mark Elenowitz, president and CEO of the fintech firm, Horizon Fintex.
“Investors are willing to go further down the risk curve for yet-to-be-built projects (i.e. the metaverse) because, again, they view the overall market structure at the moment as trending green.” said Elenowitz.
If the new Omicron-variant does shape buyer demand long term, some investors see a path for Bitcoin to rise in value as an inflation hedge. Yet Craig Erlam, Oanda senior analyst, isn’t so certain.
First, it isn’t clear yet whether central banks will stall tapering enough to change investment growth, the analyst argues. Secondly, higher levels of inflation might cause the market to react in a markedly different way than they have during the early days of the pandemic.
“Everything is hypothetical at this point,” Erlam told Yahoo Finance. “But it’s always too convenient to try to pin [Bitcoin] down to one narrative.”
David Hollerith covers cryptocurrency for Yahoo Finance. Follow him @dshollers.
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Read the latest cryptocurrency and bitcoin news from Yahoo Finance
Stocks jumped Monday to recover some losses after Friday’s slide, when uncertainty over a new coronavirus variant stoked volatility across global markets.
The Dow advanced. On Friday, the index had seen its worst day since October 2020, dropping more than 900 points, or 2.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. Bitcoin prices rebounded to trade above $58,000 during the afternoon session.
U.S. airlines and other travel stocks were mostly higher to steady after steep losses from late last week, when initial concerns over the newly discovered Omicron variant of the coronavirus in South Africa fueled fears over renewed global restrictions. Meanwhile, Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Peloton (PTON) and other stocks that have been mainstays of the “stay-at-home” trade gave back some of Friday’s gains. Technology stocks that had become defensive plays during the pandemic largely held up on Monday, however, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a gain of more than 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} at session highs.
“Ultimately this is not the first or last variant scare and our tech playbook over the last 18 months has been to use these macro/risk-off events as buying opportunities to own the tech sector specifically cloud, cyber-security, and 5G winners,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note Monday morning. “While we are seeing a return to normalcy, a semi-remote workforce environment we believe is here to stay which underscores our tech cloud thesis into 2022 that the digital transformation build-out will be accelerated and is not a one time COVID pull forward event”
The U.S. and European Union have been among a host of destinations to ban flights from several African countries after the new variant was discovered. But cases of the variant, which the World Health Organization (WHO) has so far designated as a “variant of concern,” have also detected in regions including the U.K., Hong Kong, Australia, Germany and Italy, among others. Japan, Israel and Morocco each announced in the past few days they would be blocking foreign visitors from visiting amid the latest variant’s spread.
While much is still yet to be confirmed about the Omicron variant — including whether it is more transmissible or causes more severe illness than previous variants — vaccine makers have already said they are working to adapt their existing inoculations to the new strain. Moderna’s (MRNA). Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton told BBC on Sunday that a new vaccine to address Omicron could be widely available in early 2022. Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) said last week they expected to have data on the latest variant within two weeks, and it could take about 100 days to create a vaccine specifically tailored to a new variant. The WHO has said preliminary evidence about Omicron suggested “an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other [variants of concern].”
Many market pundits have maintained it is still too early to tell how Omicron behaves from an epidemiological standpoint and how it will impact economic activity, should lockdowns or stay-in-place behavior broaden out.
“What should we be looking for? A strong leading indicator will be what happens to hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa, where this has become dominant. If there is a noticeable spike, then that carries concerning implications for elsewhere,” Henry Allen, Deustche Bank research analysts, wrote in a note.
“Nevertheless, there are two key differences worth bearing in mind between South Africa and much of the developed worked: First, Europe and the U.S. have much higher vaccination rates, which (assuming the vaccine is not ineffective) may offer greater protection,” he added, noting that South Africa has fully vaccinated 24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of its population compared to 58{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in the U.S. and 69{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in France. “This suggests they may have advantages relative to South Africa. But second, Europe and the U.S. have much older populations, and age is a factor that strongly correlates with the likelihood of hospitalization and death. In South Africa, the median age in the country is 28, much lower than Western Europe’s median age of 44.”
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4:03 p.m. ET: Tech stocks lead rebound rally after Biden says Omicron ‘not a cause for panic’: Nasdaq gains 1.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:03 p.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +60.65 (+1.32{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,655.27
Dow (^DJI): +236.60 (+0.68{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,135.94
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +291.18 (+1.88{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,782.83
Crude (CL=F): +$1.47 (+2.16{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $69.62 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$3.30 (-0.18{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,784.80 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.8 bps to yield 1.5300{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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2:23 p.m. ET: Bitcoin prices rebound as virus concerns recede
Bitcoin prices rebounded after a steep selloff on Friday, with risk assets across the board getting a boost as initial fears over the Omicron variant began to ease.
The largest cryptocurrency by market cap saw prices jump by nearly 7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} Monday afternoon to trade above $58,000. On Friday, Bitcoin prices had posted a drop that sent it 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} below its November all-time high of over $68,000. Prices for other major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum and XRP also gained on Monday.
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12:07 p.m. ET: ‘This variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic’: Biden
President Joe Biden on Monday addressed the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
“This variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for panic. We have the best vaccines in the world, the best medicine, the best scientists, and we’re learning more every single day,” Biden said in a speech. “We have more tools today to fight the variant than we ever have before.”
“The best protection against this new variant or any of the variants out there, the ones we’ve been dealing with already, is getting fully vaccinated and getting a booster shot,” he added. “Most Americans are fully vaccinated but not yet boosted. If you are 18 years or older and got vaccinated before June 1, go get the booster shot today.”
“In the event hopefully unlikely that updated vaccinations or boosters are needed to respond to this near variant, we will accelerate … their deployment with every available tool,” Biden said. “We do not yet believe that any additional measures will be needed.”
He added that the White House was already working with Pfizer and Moderna to work on contingency plans, should any new or updated vaccines or boosters be needed. He also said the White House was set to put out a strategy on how to address COVID this winter on Thursday, adding that the plan was not to implement widespread lockdowns, but to focus on vaccinations, boosters and testing.
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10:51 a.m. ET: Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey to step down, be replaced by CTO Parag Agrawal
Twitter’s (TWTR) Jack Dorsey will step down as CEO of the social media platform and be replaced by Chief Technology Officer Parag Agrawal, effective immediately, the company announced on Monday. This confirmed a CNBC report from earlier Monday morning suggesting Dorsey was set to depart from his role leading the platform.
Dorsey is set to remain a member of Twitter’s Board of Directors until his term ends next year.
“I’ve decided to leave Twitter because I believe the company is ready to move on from its founders. My trust in Parag as Twitter’s CEO is deep. His work over the past 10 years has been transformational. I’m deeply grateful for his skill, heart, and soul. It’s his time to lead,” Dorsey said in a press statement.
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10:34 a.m. ET: Cyber Monday sales expected to match last year’s level’s: Salesforce
Cyber Monday sales are expected to come in at $11 billion this year in the U.S., coming in roughly in-line with last year’s levels, according to projections from Salesforce.com.
The online shopping holiday, taking place annually the Monday after Thanksgiving, is poised to see about $43 billion in total global sales, or also approximately flat compared to last year. On Black Friday, however, U.S. sales rose 5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} compared to last year to reach $13.4 billion, Salesforce added.
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10:02 a.m. ET: Pending home sales stage rebound after September slide
Home contract-signings surged in October to recover after a September drop, with rising rent prices and still-low mortgage rates helping stoke purchases.
Pending home sales jumped by 7.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October, the National Association of Realtors said in its latest monthly report. This was far better than the 1.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rise expected, according to Bloomberg consensus data. And in September, pending home sales dropped by 2.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, with this figure downwardly revised from the 2.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} decrease previously reported for the month.
“Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low.”
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9:35 a.m. ET: Shares of Twitter jump after CNBC reports Dorsey to step down
CNBC reported Monday that Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey was expected to step down from his role leading the social media platform.
Shares of Twitter surged by more than 11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} immediately following the report, which cited unnamed people familiar with the matter. Dorsey serves as CEO of both Twitter and financial technology platform Square, which is also publicly traded.
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9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open higher, Dow gains 350+ points
Here’s where markets were trading just after the opening bell:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +56.62 (+1.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,651.24
Dow (^DJI): +352.24 (+1.01{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,251.58
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +231.13 (+1.49{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,721.53
Crude (CL=F): +$4.55 (+6.68{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $72.70 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$0.70 (-0.04{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,787.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +7.7 bps to yield 1.562{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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8:45 a.m. ET: Vaccine-makers’ stocks jump as companies work on shots to address Omicron
Shares of major COVID-19 vaccine-makers including Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna jumped Monday morning after executives from these companies said they were working on inoculations that would directly address the new Omicron version of the virus.
BioNTech American depository receipts were up more than 5.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in pre-market trading. Pfizer shares gained 1.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, while Moderna shares outperformed with a jump of more than 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in the early session.
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7:45 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures recover some losses
Here were the main moves in markets ahead of the opening bell
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +31.75 points (+0.69{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,627.50
Dow futures (YM=F): +180 points (+0.52{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,038.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +132 points (+0.82{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 16,183.00
Crude (CL=F): +$3.33 (+4.89{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $71.48 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$5.20 (+0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,793.30 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +6.2 bps to yield 1.547{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 30, 2021 in New York City. In afternoon trading the Dow was down over 250 points as investors continue to worry about inflation, wages and supply chain issues. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
(Bloomberg) — The Chinese businessman had walked out of a bank in Kinshasa with 13,624 hundred-dollar bills, 10,001 fifties and 43,000 smaller U.S. notes, despite explicit instructions to prevent it from happening.
Most Read from Bloomberg
“The account has finally been emptied,” Yvon Douhore, head of an in-house audit team in the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, wrote in an email that day, July 5, 2018, after noticing the withdrawal. “I’m at a loss for words,” a colleague replied the next day.
The previous month, Groupe BGFIBank’s compliance department in Congo had frozen accounts held by the businessman’s firm, Congo Construction Co., or CCC, because the client file was missing key documents, according to bank records. A history of transactions reviewed by Bloomberg News as part of the biggest leak of financial information from Africa showed an even bigger issue: its political connections.
Over a five-year period, tens of millions of dollars flowed through CCC’s accounts to people and companies closely associated with Congo’s then-president, Joseph Kabila, all at a bank partly owned by his sister and run by his brother, Selemani Francis Mtwale. But a series of scandals had forced the lender’s parent company in Gabon to reconsider its embrace of the presidential family. It removed Selemani as chief executive officer in May 2018 and then reclaimed a 40{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} stake held by Kabila’s sister, which it said she’d never paid for.
Douhore’s colleagues blocked the accounts while he conducted an autopsy of Selemani’s tenure. Yet someone at the bank was still authorizing transactions, right through to the final $2.5 million cash withdrawal in July 2018. The documents hint at why: Douhore was witnessing the closing act of CCC’s secret role as an intermediary between Chinese mining groups and the Kabila clan.
For more than six months, Bloomberg has analyzed a trove of 3.5 million bank documents from BGFI that offer an unprecedented glimpse into how several individuals and companies operated in what would turn out to be a takeover of much of the Congolese mining industry by Chinese companies during Kabila’s presidency. The information was obtained by Paris-based anti-corruption group Platform to Protect Whistleblowers in Africa and the French news organization Mediapart and shared with media outlets coordinated by the European Investigative Collaborations network and five non-governmental organizations.
The consortium’s investigations, dubbed “Congo Hold-up,” demonstrate the extent to which the country’s most powerful family used the bank to serve its private interests and how at least $138 million in state funds transited BGFI to Kabila’s relatives and associates. The new information also casts a light on some of the previously unseen ways in which Chinese companies came to dominate the mineral riches of one of the poorest nations in the world.
The Sentry, a Washington-based anti-corruption group, used the banking data to write a report about the Kabila family’s financial ties to Chinese mining companies. Bloomberg was given access to the organization’s documents and findings before the report’s release. Over the course of several months, Bloomberg independently obtained additional documents and spoke with dozens of people on five continents to confirm and complement the information.
In a statement posted on its website on Nov. 23, after the first consortium stories appeared, BGFI said that while it decried the leak and questioned the authenticity of the documents, it “strongly condemns acts contrary to law and ethics that may have been committed in the past within its BGFIBank RDC SA subsidiary and of which its employees could possibly have been perpetrators or complicit.” The bank added that it had restructured its ownership of the Congo unit in 2018, conducted an internal audit to identify methods that may have been used to circumvent controls, put in new management and filed a complaint with the prosecutor’s office to determine who was responsible for the alleged acts and sanction them.
This isn’t the first time BGFI has been at the center of corruption allegations in Congo. Five years ago, a former compliance officer shared thousands of bank documents with media outlets including Bloomberg that showed how Selemani had directed millions of dollars in public funds to the bank and a company owned by some of Kabila’s closest allies. The new leak of documents shows that was only part of the story.
After replacing his assassinated father in 2001 and negotiating an end to a brutal civil war, Kabila opened the country’s vast reserves of copper and cobalt to international investors. Western firms, initially enthusiastic about Kabila’s Congo, have since beat a steady retreat. BHP Group, Anglo American Plc’s De Beers and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. have all sold mines or abandoned projects. Those that stayed often formed high-risk partnerships that are now the subject of corruption probes, including one by the U.S. Department of Justice into Glencore Plc and two others by the U.K.’s Serious Fraud Office into Glencore and Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. Glencore says it’s cooperating with the authorities. ENRC denies wrongdoing.
That’s increasingly left the field to companies from China eager to expand their control over the supply of two metals that are mined together in Congo and are at the heart of the nascent revolution in electric vehicles. In less than a decade, Chinese companies have gone from minor contributors to accounting for half of Congo’s cobalt output and about 70{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of its copper production, according to Congo’s main business lobby.
The centerpiece of this transformation is a $6.2 billion minerals-for-infrastructure deal, the biggest investment in Congo’s history, spearheaded by China Railway Group Ltd. and Power Construction Corp. of China, known as Powerchina.
In 2008, the two countries agreed that the Chinese companies would finance $3 billion worth of infrastructure and build a $3.2 billion copper and cobalt project known as Sicomines, whose tax-free profits would repay both investments. Supporters hailed it as a proud symbol of China’s new “win-win” model of development financing, an alternative to the strict conditions attached to lending from the Western-dominated World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Congo’s government also handed a no-bid contract to a subsidiary of China Railway to rebuild and maintain the road from the mining hub of Lubumbashi to the border with Zambia, with tolls charged to fund the work. The highway is the primary path to export for Congolese copper and cobalt, making it one of the most lucrative routes in Africa. Each year, tens of thousands of trucks laden with metal pay the concession fee, currently $300, to make the round trip. The toll road generated a total of $302 million between 2010 and 2020, according to an unpublished government audit seen by Bloomberg.
Kabila set up a government agency — the Bureau de Coordination et de Suivi du Programme Sino-Congolais — to oversee the Chinese relationship and appointed an ally, Moise Ekanga, to run it. Ekanga, it turns out, was also the chief operating officer of a private firm owned by the Kabila family, corporate documents and contracts reviewed by Bloomberg show. The company, Strategic Projects and Investments, or SPI, profited handsomely from China’s growing presence.
SPI held a 40{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} stake in the toll road business until 2015, and then took it over completely. The audit, by an anti-graft agency under the current government, claims that since China Railway’s exit six years ago, the toll company has misappropriated nearly $121 million. Bloomberg wasn’t able to independently verify the allegation.
Cong Maohuai, a Chinese businessman who owns the Kinshasa hotel in which CCC had an office, told the consortium that he acquired control of the toll company in November 2016. However, information available at Congo’s corporate registry still lists SPI as the sole shareholder. Cong declined to provide documentation proving the change of ownership, citing confidentiality requirements. He disputed the audit’s findings, saying, “I reaffirm that there was never any misappropriation” in the concession contract. Neither China Railway nor Kabila’s younger brother Zoe, SPI’s founding shareholder, responded to multiple requests for comment.
It’s not clear how much, if anything, SPI paid China Railway to take over the toll road firm in 2015. Minutes of a board meeting approving the share transfer don’t mention any compensation. But there are traces of what the company did with at least some of the money it made: It sent it to CCC.
From June 2013 to January 2016, BGFI records show, the toll venture made 41 transfers, worth $7.8 million, to CCC, almost all of which was taken out in cash.
CCC’s owner was an aspiring academic born in 1979 in Liaoning, China, named Du Wei. He began working in Africa in the early 2000s and in August 2016 wrote an article for Wuhan University’s Institute for International Studies bemoaning Chinese companies’ tendency to use “unscrupulous means” to win major projects, according to an article Du wrote that the Sentry cited in its report.
Du, who went by “David” in Congo, worked for Sicomines for three years until 2012, when he became a consultant for Kabila’s China agency, according to his LinkedIn profile. That’s also the year he incorporated CCC with Guy Loando, then a 29-year-old Congolese lawyer, and opened a company account at BGFI.
Between February and July 2013, CCC, which had no known construction projects, received $18 million from bank accounts in China and Hong Kong held by four offshore companies registered in the British Virgin Islands. The BGFI records list the justifications as “construction fee payment,” “other transfers” and “other.” The toll road business also wired $1 million to CCC that June. Du sent most of the $19 million on to Kabila’s China agency through a series of identical cash withdrawals and deposits, rather than direct transfers, the records show.
Ekanga, the agency’s head, then promptly paid off a $14 million loan his office had taken from BGFI for the benefit of companies that were or would be linked to Kabila. The agency had wired half of the borrowed funds to another BGFI account that advanced the same amount to a cattle business Kabila would shortly purchase. It also transferred $6 million to a building firm owned by two associates of the then-president, bank records show.
Neither Ekanga nor the agency’s spokesman responded to multiple emails, texts and phone calls from the consortium requesting comment. China Railway and Sicomines’ other Chinese shareholders didn’t respond to questions asking if they ultimately provided the funds to CCC or owned the BVI firms, which were created by the same Hong Kong-based corporate services provider that China Railway used to set up a subsidiary to hold shares in Congolese mines.
Sicomines later made three large payments to CCC, from June to September 2016, for a total of $25 million. Du distributed most of the money to companies and individuals linked to the president’s family, bank records show. This included $7.5 million for a firm whose shareholders were Kabila’s sister and Selemani’s wife, $1.6 million that went to the owner of a vessel that transported animals including zebras, giraffes and wildebeests to Kabila’s private nature reserve in 2017 and $1 million sent to a director of the shipping company. A lawyer representing the ship’s then-owner declined to respond to a request for comment.
CCC also forwarded more than $1.7 million to Du’s personal accounts in Congo and Hong Kong, BGFI documents show.
Sicomines didn’t respond to questions from the consortium. The Chinese embassy in Kinshasa said its government “always asks Chinese companies working in the DRC to strictly respect local laws and regulations” and to “conduct cooperation projects in a win-win manner.” Chinese investors should “never interfere in Congolese political affairs,” an embassy spokesman said by email.
Du didn’t respond to questions. His WhatsApp and one of his email accounts were deleted after the consortium made numerous efforts to contact him.
While Sicomines entered production in 2015, it won’t be able to reach its full capacity of 250,000 metric tons of copper a year until it has a reliable supply of electricity. To ensure that, the company proposed building a dam near the village of Busanga. The $600 million project was originally supposed to be part of the minerals-for-infrastructure deal. But in July 2016, China Railway and Powerchina created a new company with Congo’s state-owned miner Gécamines, which owns 32{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of Sicomines, to hold the 240-megawatt hydropower plant. This time, 15{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of the state’s share went to a previously unknown entity called Congo Management Sarl, or Coman.
Efforts to contact Coman’s two shareholders were unsuccessful, but the company does have close ties to people in Kabila’s entourage. Coman is represented by the ex-president’s former personal lawyer and managed by someone who was an employee of Kabila’s China agency. In addition, financial transactions that appear to mirror each other occurred in the accounts of Coman and CCC. In November 2016, CCC’s Du withdrew $430,000 from the company’s account. A deposit of equal size appeared in Coman’s account at BGFI on the same day. After remaining untouched for a year, a similar amount was withdrawn by the chairman of a company co-owned by Kabila’s sister and sister-in-law, records show.
A man who would shortly become the manager of a Coman subsidiary also received $1 million from CCC in May 2017 — money that, banking records show, originated from Sicomines.
Neither Norbert Nkulu, Kabila’s former lawyer and Coman’s legal representative, nor Claudine Paony, the company’s manager, responded to questions sent by the consortium. In 2018, Kabila appointed Nkulu, who is also a former minister, to serve on Congo’s constitutional court.
Du began restructuring CCC in March 2017. First, the company took over a phosphate mining permit owned by Allamanda Trading Ltd., whose representative co-owns several companies with the person who managed Kabila’s farming company. Du then acquired the 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} stake in CCC owned by Loando, the Congolese lawyer, and transferred all the firm’s shares to a company registered in the British Virgin Islands called Harefield Overseas Ltd.
In January 2018, China Molybdenum Co. purchased CCC and its phosphate license for $40 million. China Moly had recently arrived in Congo by buying control of the giant Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine in a deal worth more than $3 billion. Last year, the Chinese firm paid $550 million to take over another large copper-cobalt deposit in Congo.
None of the parties to the deal responded to questions about whether CCC paid Allamanda for the permit or if any member of the Kabila family was a beneficiary of the company. China Moly said Du learned of its interest in the phosphate deposit at an unspecified time in 2017 and that he was the only shareholder of the offshore vehicle that held CCC at the time of the transaction. The company said it will develop the project “at an appropriate time in the future.”
By late 2017, as reports of corruption accumulated, BGFI realized that it needed to act to avoid potentially crippling U.S. Treasury sanctions, bank documents show. First, it distanced the Congo unit from the presidential family.
Next, the bank instructed Douhore, the chief auditor in Kinshasa, to review Selemani’s leadership of the Congo unit. Douhore’s assessment, completed in July 2018, concluded that governance had been “unacceptable” and characterized by a “lack of integrity and transparency in the declaration of conflicts of interest.” Multimillion dollar payments into and out of CCC’s accounts, including those from Sicomines and the toll road company, were executed either without essential paperwork or with documents of questionable authenticity, according to the audit. Douhore didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Even after China Moly’s purchase of CCC, Du continued to control its accounts at BGFI, records show. In May 2018, CCC received $7.7 million from a company partly controlled by Kabila’s sister and sister-in-law. In the same month, a BGFI account belonging to Congo’s central bank wired nearly $1.9 million to CCC.
Du transferred $1.5 million to a company registered in the United Arab Emirates in May 2018, before he and another individual removed the rest of the funds in cash, including the final withdrawal of $2.5 million in July of that year. At least two of the transactions took place after BGFI’s compliance team had tried to block CCC’s accounts.
Douhore blamed the then-CEO — who had worked closely with Selemani — for overriding the freeze, according to the documents. The audit department notified BGFI headquarters that two companies owned by Kabila family members were draining their accounts at the same time as CCC. Together, the firms took more than $23 million out of the bank in cash over two months in mid-2018.
China Moly said it’s “not aware of the existence of CCC’s bank account” and doesn’t have any knowledge of the activities executed by Du through its subsidiary. BGFI’s CEO, who has since retired, said he had no relationship with Du and that he couldn’t have authorized a cash withdrawal on a frozen account without required justifications. Deogratias Mutombo, the governor of the central bank from 2013 until earlier this year, didn’t respond to questions sent by the consortium.
In total, about $65 million flowed through CCC’s accounts between January 2013 and July 2018, of which $41 million was withdrawn in cash, making it impossible to track the beneficiaries of all the funds. Still, bank records show that at least $30 million was routed, via transfers or in cash, to people and entities directly linked to the Kabilas or companies owned by the presidential family.
Loando, Du’s former business partner, was elected in late 2018 to Congo’s senate as a member of Kabila’s coalition and has successfully navigated the deterioration of a pact between the former president and his successor, Felix Tshisekedi. In April, he became minister of regional planning. In response to questions about his role at CCC, Loando said he was simply a legal adviser and played no part in the daily management of the company. He said he wasn’t kept informed of the firm’s commercial activities and therefore had no knowledge of its transactions.
Kabila stepped down at the beginning of 2019, after 18 years in power, following delayed elections held under pressure from the U.S. and the African Union in which Tshisekedi was declared the winner.
What hasn’t changed is the control of Congo’s mines by Chinese companies. However, Tshisekedi has launched investigations into the minerals-for-infrastructure deal, including the Busanga hydropower plant, and whether China Moly is complying with its contractual obligations. It’s not clear when any conclusions from those probes will be announced.
Of the $3 billion in promised infrastructure financing from the Chinese companies, most of it still hasn’t arrived. Tshisekedi’s government said in September that projects worth only about $825 million have been built so far.
And the new president’s top anti-corruption official, Jules Alingete, has been examining alleged corruption scandals that have involved BGFI. Executives at the bank were “specialists in falsifying accounts,” he said in an interview with the consortium. “They fabricated, fabricated, fabricated, fabricated things.”
Douhore also criticized BGFI’s willingness to accept the explanations Du and an associate provided as they pulled nearly $10 million out of the bank in the middle of 2018. Those were just excuses “to allow unjustified withdrawals around suspicious [financial] movements,” he wrote in an email to his bosses. To another colleague in the Kinshasa office he wrote, “We really are in another world.”
U.S. stocks plunged on Friday, with global markets rattled by a new coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa, which fanned concerns that new growth-crushing lockdowns could be imposed if the variant spreads widely.
Trading volumes were low due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., which may have exacerbated the volatility.
However, major benchmarks fell sharply during the holiday-shortened session, with the Dow (^DJI) diving by more than 900 points — logging its worst day of the year and its third worst Thanksgiving selloff ever. Meanwhile, S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank by over 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, its biggest drop since February, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) also fell sharply, but its losses were partly contained by a rally in stay-at-home stocks.
A new coronavirus variant has been discovered in South Africa, leading to an emergency session of the World Health Organization. Dubbed “Omicron,” scientists say the new B.1.1.529 strain is a concern, because it harbors a large number of mutations found in other variants — including the fast-spreading Delta variant that exploded over much of the summer — and it seems to be rapidly spreading.
While there’s no evidence yet, health officials are worried that the mutating variant could dilute or resist the efficacy of vaccines.
“It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new B.1.1.529 strain poses to the global economy,” Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
Still, “the lesson from the past couple of years is that it’s the restrictions that are imposed in response to the virus – rather than the virus itself – that causes the bulk of the economic damage. So, the key question is how governments will respond in the event that the B.1.1.529 strain spreads,” Shearling wrote.
“That in turn will hinge on the extent to which it escapes the vaccines and, importantly, causes strains in national healthcare systems,” he added — underscoring that governments in the U.S. and U.K. had taken a “learn to live with the virus” approach, and thus are far less likely than other regions to impose new restrictions.
BioNTech (BNTX) said on Friday it expects more data on the new coronavirus variant in South Africa within two weeks to help its shots should be reworked, and that the company and Pfizer (PFE) — its vaccine partner — could redesign its vaccine within 6 weeks, with an aim to distribute it within 100 days.
Pfizer surged as much as 8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to record, signaling that the new variant could create demand for the vaccine.
While fears of COVID-19 dominated investors’ attention for much of 2020 and 2021, Pfizer confirms it could make variant vaccine in 100 days with the ability to make four billion doses in the first 12 months, according to Citi analyst Andrew Baum.
Travel and leisure-related stocks were among those hit the hardest early Friday, with Carnival Corp (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) down by 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in premarket trading. United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and American Airlines were down each 7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} each. Boeing slipped 6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide fell more than 5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
Travel platform Expedia (EXPE) was the fifth-worst performer in the S&P 500, dropping by 11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} during the shortened trading day, while home sharing site Airbnb (ABNB) was down more than 5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
On the flip side, stay-at-home stocks gained Zoom (ZM) up 9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, while Netflix (NFLX) bounded higher by 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
Oil prices also swooned to the lowest levels in more than two months Friday sparking fears about a slowdown in demand.
U.S. oil dropped 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} its the worst day since April 2020, with U.S. crude futures down 6.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to $73.57 per barrel on perceived fears of falling demand amid the new variant.
Bond yields have also fallen as the market’s inflation fears temporarily gave way to the desire for safe-haven assets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down to 1.53{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} after closing at 1.63{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on Wednesday.
“We’re still in a place where yields are so low that the safe haven of bonds isn’t as safe as it looks,” ProShares’ Simeon Hyman told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. “You’re making not that much today on that little bit of rally in treasuries, so it’s a tough spot.”
Banks, which benefit from the higher interest rates, were broadly weaker as bond yields declined. Bank of America sinks 5.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, Wells Fargo drops 6.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, Citigroup loses 4.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, JPMorgan declines 4.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, Goldman Sachs sheds 3.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and Morgan Stanley tumbled 4.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
__
1:00 p.m. ET: Stocks slump on Black Friday, as new variant spooks investors
Here were the main moves in markets as of 1:00 p.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -106.65 (-2.27{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,594.81
Dow (^DJI): -903.59 (-2.52{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,900.79
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -353.57 (-2.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,491.66
Crude (CL=F): +$9.73 (-12.41{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $68.66 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$1.10 (-0.06{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,785.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.4 bps to yield 1.54{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
11:15 a.m. ET: Carnival, travel slumps on fears of South African Covid variant
Cruise lines stocks continues to retreat as covid fears swelled. Carnival Corp (CCL) shed more than 12{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, while Royal Caribbean (RCL) sunk more than 11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
11:10 a.m. ET: Stocks slump midday
Here’s where markets were trading midday:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -93.46 (-1.99{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,608.00
Dow (^DJI): -913.69 (-2.55{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,890.69
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -318.08 (-2.02{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,523.46
Crude (CL=F): -$9.24 (-11.79{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $69.15 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): $13.30 (0.75{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,797.60 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.49 bps to yield 1.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
10:30 a.m. ET: The end of the interest rate differential play?
Friday’s decidedly risk-off tone is calling into question the level of aggressiveness with which the Federal Reserve may pull back on its stimulus. Only a day ago, some thought the rapid surge in prices could prompt the Fed to speed up a taper — or even hike rates faster.
What a difference a day makes. Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global FX, pointed out in a research note that the rise of a new variant is scrambling Fed expectations versus the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan:
The dollar’s rally has been fueled by the prospect of a divergence of monetary policy that favored the Fed over the ECB and BOJ. Indeed, since the November 10 surprise jump in the October CPI to above 6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, we had emphasized the likelihood that the Fed would have to taper quicker to give it the flexibility to lift rates earlier if needed. Since then, 4-5 Fed officials and several large banks have also underscored this possibility. However, this scenario is being called into question today, which is evident in the swaps markets and the Fed funds futures.
9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open sink
Here’s where markets were trading just before the opening bell:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -66.85 (-1.42{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,634.61
Dow (^DJI): -848.78 (-2.37{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,955.60
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -133.91 (-0.83{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,708.01
Crude (CL=F): -$5.34 (-6.81{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $73.05 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): $21.20 (1.19{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,805.50 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.52 bps to yield 1.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 30, 2021 in New York City. In afternoon trading the Dow was down over 250 points as investors continue to worry about inflation, wages and supply chain issues. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained on Wednesday as technology stocks recovered some recent losses, with investors digesting a deluge of economic data before a holiday market closure.
Investors considered new Labor Department data showing weekly initial jobless claims fell far more than expected to their lowest level since November 1969, underscoring current tight labor market conditions. However, a separate print showed personal consumption expenditures (PCE) accelerated to rise by 5.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October, or the fastest rate since 1990, to add to recent signs of elevated price pressures.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 1.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} amid these further signs of a firming economic recovery and persistently hot inflation data.
Rising interest rates have coincided with a selloff in tech and growth stocks this week, with the Nasdaq dropping 0.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on Tuesday after Monday’s more than 1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} decline.
“Initially, the markets were happy with the FOMC decision [for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination] in the sense that it was sort of a continuity play to some degree. But then rates started to rise, and a lot of folks read rising rates as negative for big-cap tech,” Stuart Kaiser, UBS head of equity derivatives research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “So I think the tradeoff we’re going to have here is that, tech has been market leadership — it’s obviously a strong earnings growth and free cash flow engine for U.S. equities — but if you believe it’s going to come under pressure from higher yields, then you end up with kind of a difficult Catch-22.”
According to other analysts, the market action this week — with a renewed rotation away from technology and growth stocks in the face of rising rates — could presage the investing environment for next year.
“[Tuesday] might be an example of what we see more of next year as the Fed moves into a mode of withdrawing liquidity from the markets and ending these pandemic-era policies, perhaps with rate hikes at the end of the year,” Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live. “And that means higher-valuation stocks, well, they tend to not do as well in environments of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions.”
“So you may want to look to be in those sectors that are maybe trading closer to their average valuations, looking to leadership like financials, energy,” he added. “The only caveat to that is when we see these upticks in COVID cases globally, it tends to favor those lockdown defensives like technology.”
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4:09 p.m. ET: Tech stocks recover, S&P 500 and Nasdaq end higher after jobless claims reach 52-year low, PCE inflation jumps
Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +10.76 (+0.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,701.46
Dow (^DJI): -9.42 (-0.03{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,804.38
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +70.09 (+0.44{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,845.23
Crude (CL=F): -$0.25 (-0.32{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $78.25 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$4.20 (+0.24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,788.00 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -2.2 bps to yield 1.6450{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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3:50 p.m. ET: FOMC minutes suggest central bank focused on ‘flexibility’ for policy path forward
The Federal Open Market Committee’s November meeting minutes released Wednesday afternoon suggested monetary policymakers were committed to remaining flexible in their policy path forward and would adjust their asset-purchase tapering as needed as new economic data rolled in. The central bank had announced in early November that it was going to begin reducing its asset purchases at a rate of $15 billion per month in each of November and December, and then reassess the size of the reductions going forward.
“The Committee was prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook and agreed that the post-meeting statement should say so,” the minutes said. “Members agreed that the addition of this language would acknowledge the importance of maintaining flexibility to adjust the stance of policy as appropriate in response to changes in the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation.”
The November FOMC meeting did not come with an updated “dot plot” of individual members’ projections on interest rates and other economic data. However, the minutes Wednesday noted that the members’ “near-term outlook for inflation was revised up, as consumer food and energy prices had risen faster than expected and production bottlenecks and recent wage gains were seen as putting somewhat greater upward pressure on prices than had been anticipated.”
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12:02 p.m. ET: New home sales unexpectedly rose for a back-to-back month in October
New home sales rose by 0.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October to extend gain after a 7.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in September, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Consensus economists were looking for an unchanged reading last month, according to Bloomberg consensus data.
“The trend is picking up after a steep drop in the first half of the year, and the recent rising trend in mortgage applications points to clear increases over the next few months, with sales hitting 850K or so by January,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Wednesday. “At the same time, inventory continues to rise rapidly, in contrast to the existing homes market. Supply in the three months October stood at 6.3 months, a bit higher than before COVID. As a result the surge in prices now looks very overcooked, and we expect a clear slowing in the first half of next year.”
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10:15 a.m. ET: Personal spending and income each top estimates in October despite
Personal spending increased in October even amid elevated prices, pointing to continued strength in the consumer despite lingering inflation.
Personal spending, which comprises about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose by 1.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October compared to September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Wednesday. This was faster than the 0.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rate posted for September and the 1.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} monthly increase expected, according to Bloomberg data. Real personal spending also accelerated during the month and topped estimates, rising by 0.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from September’s 0.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase.
Personal income, meanwhile, rebounded after dropping last month, rising by 0.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} versus the 0.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase anticipated. Income had fallen by 1.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month-on-month in September, in part coming after federal enhanced unemployment benefits were phased out at the national level after Labor Day.
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10:10 a.m. ET: Personal consumption expenditures rose at fastest pace since 1990
Personal consumption expenditures rose by 5.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October over last year, accelerating from September’s 4.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rise. The latest monthly print marked the fastest annual growth rate since 1990.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE deflator was up 4.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in October, also accelerating from September’s revised 3.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase. This was the fastest annual rise in the core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — since 1991.
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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower
Here’s where markets were trading just before the opening bell:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -21.59 (-0.46{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,669.11
Dow (^DJI): -209.61 (-0.59{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,604.19
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -114.56 (-0.73{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,658.21
Crude (CL=F): -$0.23 (-0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $78.27 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$1.40 (-0.08{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,782.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +1.6 bps to yield 1.681{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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8:45 a.m. ET: New jobless claims reach lowest in 52 years, Q3 GDP revised up
Economic data Wednesday morning came in mostly stronger-than-expected, with a new print on the labor market handily topping estimates while the second estimate of U.S. economic activity in the third quarter was revised higher.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new weekly jobless claims came in at 199,000 for the week ended Nov. 20. This was the lowest level since November 1969, and was much better than the 260,000 new claims expected.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate on third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product. Quarterly GDP was revised up to a 2.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} annualized rate for the three months ended in September, or above the 2.0{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rate previously reported. This still represented a marked slowdown from the prior quarter’s 6.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} annualized rate of growth, however.
The improvement from the prior estimate came as personal consumption, the biggest component of U.S. economic activity, was revised up to a 1.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} pace, from the 1.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} rate previously reported.
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7:16 a.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures drop ahead of economic data
Here were the main moves in markets ahead of the opening bell
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -13.75 points (-0.29{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,674.75
Dow futures (YM=F): -119 points (-0.33{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,647.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -59 points (-0.36{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 16,253.00
Crude (CL=F): +$0.17 (+0.22{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $78.67 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$3.40 (+0.19{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,787.20 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.5 bps to yield 1.66{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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6:16 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures open lower
Here’s where markets were trading Tuesday evening:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -4.75 points (-0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 4,683.75
Dow futures (YM=F): -27 points (-0.08{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}), to 35,739.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -17.25 points (-0.11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 16,294.75
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 15: A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 15, 2021 in New York City. Following positive economic news out of China, stocks were up in morning trading on Monday with investors looking at retail sales and earnings results out from major U.S. companies later this week. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Joe Oltmann and Vickie Tonkins (center) confer during the February El Paso County GOP Central Committee meeting.
Heidi Beedle
The vice chairman of the El Paso County GOP, Karl Schneider, filed a campaign finance complaint form with the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office today, according to documents available on TRACER, a campaign finance disclosure website.
Schneider’s complaint involves donations from the El Paso County GOP’s Aug. 6 Lincoln Day Dinner, which featured Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. According to Schneider’s complaint, “Donations to the Party for the Lincoln Day Dinner were not found,” he wrote. “The [Treasurer] later resigned in part, due to the fact he requested, as did I on 8 October 2021, that we hire an outside accountant and conduct a full audit to help sort this matter out. The Chair [Vickie Tonkins] has refused to provide this support and refused to communicate with myself on the matter and other members of the Executive Committee of the El Paso County GOP which has a fiduciary responsibility w/regard to all financial matters. I am very concerned that the Party has violated and is violating the Fair Campaign Practices Act and, given our current bylaws structure, we are unable to compel compliance of the Act by our Chair. It is the intent of this complaint to report suspected campaign finance law violations and ultimately achieve transparency in our Party financial dealings by requesting the Secretary of the State of Colorado investigate these allegations of campaign finance law violations.”
Attached to the complaint was an Oct. 1 email from former El Paso County GOP Treasurer John Pitchford to the executive committee — Schneider, Chairwoman Vickie Tonkins, Secretary Sheryl Glasgow and Colorado Republican Committee Chairwoman Kristi Burton Brown — bringing attention to the discrepancies. “We need a full inventory of all Lincoln [Day] items sold and unsold,” wrote Pitchford. “I am unable to do any further Tracer reporting until we have accurate records from Aug 6. Jeanine Nelms was the winning bidder for two items. I wanted to get her address so I could enter her data into Tracer. She told me she came to the office to pay for her coffee – NO coffee. She wanted to pay for her necklace – NO necklace. I suggest we hire an accountant to figure this out.”
Also included was an Oct. 8 email between Schneider and Mary Elizabeth Fabian, who ran for the District 5 City Council seat in 2021. Schneider wrote, “Please reach out to John [Pitchford]. I recall he suggested an outside consultant/accountant be hired to help him clear up donation accountability problems as of a week ago. I think there were at least two items, possibly very high dollar value (jewelry), missing and some tracer challenges. There may be other issues but not sure. I do agree with our Treasurer that if he needs additional resources, he should get it.”
Schneider’s Nov. 23 campaign finance complaint.
Colorado Secretary of State’s Office
Schneider also addressed Tonkins, who was copied on the Fabian exchange, requesting an audit be conducted for all tickets and items related to the Lincoln Day Dinner; that a police report be filed if the missing items were over $50 in value; and a Special Executive Committee session be called to address the issues.
An undated message from the El Paso County GOP Executive Committee to Brown was also included in the complaint. Burton Brown wrote, “On Oct. 12, Dr. John Pitchford resigned from his position as Treasurer of the El Paso County Republican Central Committee…. He did this when his request to hire an accountant to investigate discrepancies with the Lincoln Day Dinner was denied by the County Party Chairwoman, Vickie Tonkins…. His resignation was to become effective on October 21 so that he could stay on to train a replacement. Ms. Tonkins informed him she was not giving him the training time that he requested. To her, his resignation was effective immediately and he was to turn in the books and any party related items in his possession…. Based on John Pitchford’s concern, Vice Chair Karl Schneider, also requested a full audit from Ms. Tonkins…. To date, she has refused to respond to his request. Our county bylaws are clear, the Executive Committee has a fiduciary responsibility for the finances of the Central Committee. As such, we, members of the Executive Committee, are concerned there could be discrepancies in the Lincoln Day Dinner records/accounts. We know this was a very successful dinner. It was attended by over 400 people with many auction items, and allegedly grossed approximately $50,000. All receipts should be properly accounted for.”
Tonkins did not immediately respond to the Indy‘s request for comment. Schneider’s complaint is not the first accusation of discrepancies in regards to the El Paso County GOP’s finances. According to a Sept. 4 email sent by Pitchford to members of the Fountain City Council, obtained via a Colorado Open Records Act request, Pitchford accused newly elected Fountain Mayor Sharon Thompson and Colorado Rep. Mary Bradfield (R-HD21) of filing a false report. “In 2019 I became treasurer of the El Paso County GOP and in that capacity, I reviewed our Tracer reports and found one of them to be in my opinion fraudulent,” wrote Pitchford. “I’ve attached this report and it will allow you to do the math so that you can determine for yourself that this particular report is fraudulent on its face. Our CPA put it this way, ‘it just doesn’t add up.’ I began asking questions as to why this report was falsified and who had knowledge of it. I wanted to know why no effort was made to determine why this report was in error by nearly $44,000 and why no efforts were made to correct it before filing it with the Secretary of State. Sharon Thompson had knowledge of this document and assisted state representative Mary Bradfield in preparing it.”
A TRACER report filed by Bradfield that Pitchford claimed was fraudulent.
Colorado Secretary of State’s Office
Thompson, who served as the Republican House District 21 chairwoman since 2012, denied involvement with the TRACER report in question. “I had nothing to do with the books,” she said in a Sept. 12 phone interview. “I’ve never prepared a TRACER Report.”
Bradfield confirmed that Thompson was not involved in the filing of the report, and said the report in question was the result of an adjustment made with the knowledge of the Secretary of State’s Office. “After collaboration with the Secretary of State Tracer Division, a one time adjustment was made in the EPC GOP Tracer account,” she said in an email.