Are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis?

Are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis?

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


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Everyone seems to be in a bit of a debt bind at the moment: The US government has run out of credit to spend, high inflation and interest rates have taken a big bite out of debt-laden tech companies that expected pandemic-era growth to continue and US credit card debt reached nearly $1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to TransUnion.

Last year was bad for credit on all counts as Covid-zero policies in China, Russia’s war on Ukraine and the associated energy crisis and high inflation led to turbulent markets, pushed up borrowing rates and slowed the global economy.

Economists are hoping that this year brings better news, but 2023 is unlikely to provide the clean break investors are hoping for. Governments have diminishing fiscal options to deploy after piling on debt during the pandemic and individual borrowers face a prolonged period of elevated interest rates.

Profit pressures on corporate borrowers, meanwhile, are intensifying at an especially rapid pace as business costs remain elevated while consumer demand wanes amid the prospects of an economic downturn.

High borrowing costs and an uncertain economic outlook mean that companies are trading in the prospect of rapid growth for smaller debt loads. Fourth-quarter earnings reports show that the pace of debt reduction accelerated to -1.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the year, from -0.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in the third quarter, according to Bank of America.

But businesses that don’t have cash to pay down debt loads may face the music in 2023. Economists at S&P Global Ratings forecast that speculative-grade (perceived to have a lower level of credit quality compared to more highly rated, investment-grade, companies) corporate default rates in the US and Europe will double this year alone.

So are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis?

Before the Bell spoke with Ruth Yang, managing director and global head of thought leadership at S&P Global Ratings to discuss what lies ahead for the corporate credit market.

Before the Bell: What’s your big picture view of the credit economy right now?

Ruth Yang: There’s no easy way out, we have a very narrow pathway forward. If we have a shallow and short recession, then the risk for defaults is also shallow and short. But if we have a longer recession — even if it’s shallow — and growth continues to slow, we’re going to see defaults start to rise and credit markets struggle.

Corporations still have cash cushions on their balance sheets but they’re getting eaten away, we’re running out of time and the pathway is narrowing. As it narrows exogenous macro shocks present larger risks to the credit markets. It could be the destabilization of crypto, or the tension between energy security and the cost of energy and climate change or US-China relations and supply chain problems.

All of these things are going to come at costs and the impact is really magnified because we don’t have a lot of margin for error. We don’t have a lot of room to maneuver and we have a lot at risk.

How are you seeing credit headwinds playing out in investment strategies?

Higher for longer’ interest rates isn’t just about borrowing costs. Something I’ve noticed is that it’s also impacting funding strategies in general. Private equity investors and others are no longer as focused on total return and are less willing to fund companies that are cash-flow negative in the short term. They’re going to be a lot more focused on cash-flow-positive companies across the board. We think that will change sector-based investment strategies — technology and health care are notoriously cash-flow negative and will have more trouble finding funding.

Who will lead the way in these possible funding changes?

Private equity fuels an enormous part of our economy and the ability to get funding is going to lead the way in corporate earnings reports. The maturity wall for debt is still a few years down the road but if we’re still in a ‘higher for longer’ state in two or three years we’re going to have to fundamentally change how we fund companies. The business models of companies that are able to raise funds will also change. There will be slower growth with thinner margins and that’s going to change how people look at their investment opportunities.

▸ Investors who find themselves infatuated with inflation rates will receive a nice Valentine’s Day treat on Tuesday with the release of January’s Consumer Price Index. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made headlines and lifted markets as he said that 2023 would bring more disinflation.

“We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation. It’s actually our job to make sure that that’s the case,” said the central bank chief in a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Wall Street will watch closely to see if prices continue to drop in the first inflation report of the year and if sticky service inflation finally begins to deflate.

Analysts are predicting some bad news, however. They forecast that headline CPI increased by 0.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} month over month in January, according to Refinitiv data. That would be an acceleration from the recent pace.

That outlook mostly reflects an increase in energy prices, driven by higher gasoline prices. Data from AAA shows that gas prices rose by 4.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in January.

Analysts from Bank of America also predict that core services likely rose by 0.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from December, owing largely to a 0.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} increase in shelter costs.

▸ The Producer Price Index, which measures the change in input for companies, is due out on Thursday. When producers face input inflation, the increases in their production costs are passed on to retailers and consumers — so this data is considered a leading indicator of inflation.

Price increases upstream from the consumer during January are also expected to have accelerated from December. The monthly core number is forecast to rise to 0.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from 0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, with the core year-on-year number rising to 5.7{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from 5.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, according to Refinitiv.

▸ Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have released fourth-quarter earnings and the season is winding down, but there are still some big names reporting this week.

Palantir and Avis report on Monday.

On Tuesday Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Marriott and GoDaddy report.

Wednesday brings earnings news from Cisco, Shopify, AIG, Kraft Heinz, Fidelity, Biogen and Roblox.

DoorDash, Paramount Dropbox, Hasbro and DraftKings come Thursday.

The week closes out with Deere & Company, AutoNation and AMC on Friday.

If you bought booze ahead of the Super Bowl on Sunday, you may have gotten a better deal if you skipped beer and went straight for the hard stuff.

Beer prices this year have jumped 11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from a year earlier, while wine and spirits are up 4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, respectively according to a new Wells Fargo Super Bowl Food Report.

Party guests may have also enjoyed the switch. Spirits were more popular than beer last year for the first time ever, according to a new Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS) report last week.

Spirits sales rose in the United States (for the 13th straight year) in 2022, and now represent 42.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of the total US alcohol market share. This is the first time spirits supplier revenues have surpassed beer, which holds a 41.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} market share.

Driving the growth were increased sales of American whiskey and tequila.

“More than 60{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of the spirits sector’s total revenue was from sales of high-end and super-premium spirits, mainly led by Tequila and American Whiskey,” said Christine LoCascio, DISCUS chief of public policy and strategy in a statement last week. “While many consumers are feeling the pinch from inflation and reduced disposable income, they are still willing to purchase that special bottle of spirits, choosing to sip a little luxury and drink better, not more.”

Still, vodka led the way in the United States, with $7.2 billion in sales last year, about the same as in 2021.

But it appears Wall Street likes to invest sober — those gains haven’t shown up in the broader market just yet. Constellation Brands (the company behind Svedka Vodka, Casa Noble Tequila and High West Whiskey), Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel’s, Herradura, Woodford Reserve, el Jimador and Finlandia) and Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Smirnoff, Baileys, Ketel One and Captain Morgan) are all under-performing the S&P 500 so far this year.

Is the Florida Homeowners Insurance Market on the Brink of Collapse?

Is the Florida Homeowners Insurance Market on the Brink of Collapse?

Florida is encountering an exodus, but it is not from citizens relocating somewhat, this is an exodus of home insurance policy corporations. While this would be relating to in any point out and at any time, it is notably worrisome in Florida in advance of the Atlantic hurricane season, which commences on June 1.

Bankrate dug deep into Florida insurance coverage information to uncover the trigger of this trouble. We can assist you have an understanding of why the Florida residence coverage disaster is occurring and what you can do to put together for the likelihood of acquiring a cancellation or nonrenewal observe on your homeowners insurance policy policy.

The disaster in the Florida insurance policy industry

Florida has normally been a elaborate dwelling insurance coverage market place, but latest challenges are pushing the state’s sector to the level of collapse. Considering the fact that 2017, six home and casualty firms that supplied householders insurance coverage in Florida liquidated. Two extra are in the liquidation system in 2022. Other insurance plan companies are voluntarily leaving the condition, and nevertheless extra are picking to nonrenew swaths of household insurance policy procedures or greatly tighten their coverage eligibility necessities.

In accordance to Logan McFaddin, vice president of point out governing administration relations at the American Home Casualty Insurance coverage Affiliation,

Florida’s residence insurance policies market is in disaster as insurers grapple with out-of-manage litigation expenses and billions in losses from the latest organic disasters.

Florida’s Insurance policy Buyer Advocate (ICA) Tasha Carter agrees, expressing, “Homeowners insurance coverage possibilities in Florida have grow to be far more and more constrained, and individuals are struggling with dire effects.”

Why are residence insurance coverage firms leaving Florida?

Florida insurers are canceling procedures, leaving the state or liquidating at a fast pace. Why? What is at the rear of these companies’ aversion to insuring Florida properties?

Florida has constantly introduced a dangerous industry to property insurance coverage businesses thanks to the superior menace of popular weather conditions-associated damage, but the existing disaster is brought about by a selection of factors reaching a boiling issue at the very same time.

Insurance plan fraud in Florida

The major situation appropriate now in Florida is dwelling insurance coverage fraud, driven by fraudulent roofing promises. ICA Carter describes how the frauds get the job done:

  1. Initially, roofers canvas neighborhoods and offer inspections to unsuspecting property owners. These contractors inevitably “find damage” on the roof and generally assure a “free roof” to the homeowner, professing they can have the dwelling insurance coverage deductible waived.
  2. House owners are pressured to indication an assignment of rewards variety, giving contractors the appropriate to file an coverage assert on their behalf.
  3. A promises adjuster from the insurance coverage organization inspects the alleged problems. The adjuster either finds no hurt or significantly more minimum hurt than the contractor observed, and the claim payout is much less than what the contractor demanded.
  4. The contractor brings lawful action in opposition to the insurance policy company, demanding a claim payout for the contractor’s first estimate. Bear in mind, the property owner signed the positive aspects of the coverage to the contractor, so the contractor does not will need the homeowner’s permission to do this.
  5. The insurance policy enterprise now has a selection: it can spend the lawful charges to battle the lawsuit or pay out the expenditures to settle out of court. Possibly way, the coverage company loses funds due to the lawful action.

ICA Carter notes that “these schemes are true and are going on extra often,” which puts far more and extra money force on insurance policy firms, specially in a condition with superior statements charges owing to weather-connected events.

In accordance to Mark Friedlander, director of corporate communications at the Insurance policies Info Institute, “Florida assets insurers are projected to write-up a cumulative underwriting reduction of $1.7 billion for 2021” owing to these runaway litigation expenditures. It’s no ponder that so a lot of businesses are going bancrupt or leaving the condition before they reach that position.

Roof age

Instead of leaving entirely, some corporations are tightening their underwriting restrictions to reduce the possibility of these frauds. This may possibly be the explanation why a number of businesses — which include Southern Fidelity, Progressive and Common — have chosen to go on operations in Florida but have nonrenewed tens of thousands of policies.

Sean Harper, CEO of Kin Insurance plan, spoke with Bankrate about this strategy. He explains the logic behind this from an insurer’s viewpoint: “If there is this rip-off all-around roofs, I’m nevertheless likely to be open up, but I’m only likely to underwrite roofs that are 10 many years aged or less, I’m not heading to do any 15-12 months-old roofs.” While several more mature roofs are beautifully seem, the possibility of problems will increase as a roof will get more mature, very likely increasing the threat of falling sufferer to a roofing scam.

Storm threat

Danger will generally be a thing to consider for residence insurance policy businesses in Florida. The state’s form and geographic area suggest that it could get strike from possibly facet by a hurricane. Mainly because the peninsula is so skinny, even residences in the inside counties aren’t completely protected.

To make issues even worse, fraudulent statements may be far more popular right after severe storms — and storms might be coming. Colorado Condition University predicts that the 2022 hurricane year will be additional significant than usual, with 19 named storms, together with nine hurricanes, four of which are predicted to be “major.” If any of all those storms hit Florida — which is likely, looking at that Florida has been hit by additional hurricanes than any other state — it could drive the now-teetering house insurance plan sector into collapse thanks to elevated home repair service bills, which includes the probable of fraudulent roof claims.

On the other hand, while the possibility of hurricane hurt complicates matters, it is not what is driving the industry to the brink of collapse. Following all, other dangerous states do not have this difficulty. A superior chance of harm commonly signifies paying out a higher high quality to offset that danger, but coverage is generally even now available. Oklahoma, for example, has the greatest ordinary expense of house insurance in the nation at $3,593 per 12 months thanks to the chance of twister harm, but house owners in the point out really don’t facial area the very same trouble obtaining coverage that Floridians do.

Is anything at all being carried out to control the disaster?

Sure, whilst the total consequences of the actions have still to be viewed. Senate Monthly bill 76 went into influence in July 2021 and involved numerous provisions to with any luck , suppress the fraudulent claims resulting in insurers so substantially strain. 1 these provision is aimed at minimizing the solicitation practices that fraudulent contractors usually use at the get started of a fraud. Though this lawful evaluate may possibly aid solve the challenge, Harper warns that “there will need to be more action taken to restore the marketplace to wellbeing.”

It continues to be to be noticed if further motion comes about prior to the upcoming hurricane time. In April, Governor Ron DeSantis declared his options to convene a particular session in May well to examine possible reform inside the residence insurance policies sector.

How to lessen your risk of nonrenewal

If you reside in Florida, owning a strategy could aid you lessen your hazard of receiving an insurance plan nonrenewal. There is nothing at all you can do to prevent your organization from pulling out of the condition, but there are techniques you can consider to make your home as insurable as possible:

  • Keep your roof current and in superior form: Inspect your roof frequently and repair insignificant damage as it comes about. If you can find the money for to, replace your roof ahead of it reaches 15 yrs of age to lessen the hazard of being nonrenewed.
  • Install wind mitigation options: Condition regulation necessitates Florida dwelling insurance corporations to provide reductions for specified wind safety options, this sort of as hurricane straps and other roof-bracing steps. These capabilities reduce the possibility of serious damage to your household, consequently generating your assets more eye-catching to insurers.
  • Retain your property: Usually, sustaining your residence will make locating insurance protection less complicated. Together with checking your roof, also often examine the relaxation of the exterior options of your house for destruction. You really should also make absolutely sure no massive tree branches or other probable hazards overhang your property, as these could place you at possibility of roof destruction in a windstorm.

Also, there are ways you can reduce the effects of house coverage fraud and enable keep corporations from having to liquidate. ICA Carter factors out that “consumers have the energy to help halt contractor fraud by getting educated and reporting fraud.”

  • Know the indicators and keep educated: ICA Carter created academic resources known as “Demolish Contractor Fraud: Steps to Prevent Falling Target” that might enable home owners acknowledge the indications of fraud, cease it right before it comes about and report it.
  • Be wary of solicitation: Soliciting company isn’t from the law, but contractors who canvas neighborhoods following storms — and specifically these who provide incentives and rebates for an inspection — may possibly be part of a rip-off. As a substitute, contact your coverage company if you are worried your household sustained harm right after a storm.
  • Do not indicator an assignment of gains variety: By maintaining command of your plan, you determine if a lawsuit is filed, which vastly cuts down on fraudulent litigation. It is truly worth noting that these forms are frequently buried in otherwise legit-looking contracts. Once you’ve signed, the sort is lawfully binding, so it’s important to browse everything you are questioned to sign. Do not enable a contractor basically position out a signature portion on paperwork or scroll past the facts on a tablet display screen. Go through the entire document cautiously.

In addition, some firms now provide a price reduction if you concur to make your plan unassignable. Kin is one particular such company, and Harper notes that owning a high range of unassignable guidelines has shielded the company from much of the litigation nightmare ensnaring other carriers.

What to do if your home insurance plan has been canceled

If you have gained a Florida owners insurance coverage cancellation, act rapidly. With hurricane season approaching and the insurance policy market in turmoil, having a further plan could be complicated, but it is doable.

McFaddin suggests that you “work carefully with your insurance provider or coverage agent to see what solutions may perhaps be available to you.” ICA Carter’s advice was comparable, advising that “consumers must get in touch with their insurance plan agency promptly to determine what their options are for owners coverage.”

If you are struggling to locate residence coverage coverage in Florida, there are even now a couple companies that may well be ready to help.

Kin

No residence insurance coverage enterprise in Florida is immune to the ripping results of raging litigation, but Harper notes that his enterprise has “some issues that we’re carrying out that enable us to remain open up in Florida when other people are not or are heading out of business enterprise.” In addition to the bulk of the company’s insurance policies getting unassignable, the corporation also employs a unique procedure for evaluating assert harm.

Harper points out that Kin takes advantage of software package that monitors weather conditions techniques and properly pinpoints which homes may possibly be ruined. The company can then proactively access out to property owners to establish if a declare demands to be submitted, thus reducing out likely predatory contractors.

It sounds ridiculous, correct, to be an insurance firm that is asking our buyers for claims? But it in fact pays off.

— Sean HarperCEO of Kin Insurance plan

Citizens House Insurance plan Company

Citizens is often just one of the only selections for house owners in a lot of parts of the point out. The corporation has seasoned quick expansion owing to other carriers leaving the industry. In 2018, the corporation experienced only 414,000 lively procedures by March 2022, that quantity experienced ballooned to around 800,000. Michael Peltier, the spokesperson for Citizens, told Bankrate that the organization is producing 5,000 to 6,000 new insurance policies per 7 days, and that in lots of parts of the state, Citizens is “the only sport in city suitable now.”

Even so, Peltier claims that “we do have underwriting suggestions,” so it may possibly not be an possibility for all owners. On top of that, Friedlander warns that, simply because Citizens is insuring so several of the superior-threat homes that other carriers have walked away from, “a main hurricane striking Florida could have devastating effects” on the business and the industry.

The base line

Florida home insurance policy has normally been elaborate owing to the state’s large threat of storm problems, but the incidence of fraudulent roofing statements has pushed the industry to the brink of collapse. The challenge could not remain in Florida, either if other high-risk states like Louisiana and California see an increase in insurance policy fraud, those people markets could begin to degrade. There is hope, although, as laws are handed that could aid curb frauds and some carriers acquire a distinct solution to insuring households in the Sunshine Point out. But will the answer occur quickly plenty of?