U.S. career openings rebounded in September soon after plunging in August, in accordance to federal information launched Tuesday, inspite of strain from large inflation and curiosity charges.
American companies posted 10.7 million open up work opportunities by the last working day of September, in accordance to the Labor Department’s Task Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report, up from 10.1 million in August.
Whilst hires fell from 6.3 million in August to 6.1 million in September, organizations also laid off fewer personnel.
The variety of personnel who still left their jobs voluntarily — usually to just take gigs with greater payment or occupation prospects — also stayed largely even previous month. The share of those staff who remaining their work opportunities voluntarily, also regarded as the quits fee, remained at 2.7 percent.
“After the shock of past month’s report, the September JOLTS knowledge is returning to a acquainted tale: desire for personnel stays strong. By all the essential metrics in this report, the labor market is resilient,” wrote Nick Bunker, head of financial investigate at Certainly Employing Lab, in a Tuesday assessment.
“Job openings still vastly outnumber unemployed personnel, the quits rate continues to be elevated and layoffs are even now perfectly beneath pre-pandemic levels. Some energy has been sapped from the labor marketplace, but it keeps on operating,” he wrote.
The September JOLTS report is the most current indicator of how powerful the U.S. task sector stays despite the Federal Reserve’s makes an attempt to weaken it.
Workers experienced appreciated historic ability more than businesses for substantially of the recovery from the COVID-19 recession as the selection of open jobs rose properly previously mentioned the variety of People in search of operate. There were just about two open up positions for each unemployed American in September, according to the Labor Section. That gave employees leverage to need bigger wages and acquire work with much better positive aspects somewhere else.
Whilst the potent occupation marketplace has aided hundreds of thousands of American rebound from the pandemic-driven economic downturn, it has also been 1 of lots of component fueling high rate growth.
As companies boosted wages to attract workers and struggled to remain adequately staffed, they have raised their rates for merchandise and expert services to compensate. The shock to foodstuff and electrical power price ranges pushed by the war in Ukraine and lingering supply chain challenges have also extra force to domestic and small business budgets.
The Fed has swiftly boosted interest costs due to the fact March in the hopes of cooling off the labor marketplace. Better curiosity rates sluggish the economic system, which could pressure organizations to preserve wages reduced and avert employees from bouncing around in look for of greater careers.
Some industry experts consider the September JOLTS report, in spite of its best-line toughness, confirmed symptoms of the Fed’s amount hikes functioning.
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecuiter, argued that a bounty of open work opportunities with important businesses obscured a steep decrease in postings by smaller corporations and organizations in just the finance and insurance plan sectors. She stated the reasonably smaller declines in hirings and quits are still extra important indications of wherever the labor market place is heading.
“The amount of career openings rose in September, partly offsetting the massive drop in August, according to the JOLTS report out these days. But make no oversight: the labor market place is cooling,” Pollak wrote.
Skanda Amarnath, executive director at investigate nonprofit Make use of The united states, extra that the decrease in the non-public sector quits level from 3 p.c in August to 2.9 percent in September was a different indication of the labor marketplace cooling.
“The trend in the complete amount of voluntary work separations suggests that labor industry turnover is declining. If wage growth is a response to this sort of dynamics, it indicates that these force can and is presently cooling,” he wrote on Twitter.
U.S. stocks fell Wednesday as investors eyed more hawkish remarks from key monetary policymakers. These suggested that more members of the Federal Reserve were open to moving aggressively to raise interest rates and bring down demand and persistently elevated levels of inflation.
[Click here to read what’s moving markets heading into Thursday, April 7]
The S&P 500 dropped, adding to losses after the blue-chip index ended Tuesday’s session lower by 1.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq also extended declines. In the bond market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to top 2.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, marking its highest level since May 2019.
Developments on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Western response remained in focus Wednesday as the U.S. announced another round of sanctions on the Kremlin. The U.S. add penalties to more Russian government officials and family members as well as to Russian-owned enterprises and financial institutions.
Meanwhile, hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials also knocked U.S. equities from their latest march higher and send Treasury yields spiking. The Fed’s meeting minutes released Wednesday afternoon showed central bankers were discussing starting quantitative tightening in the near-term, and that “many participants … would have preferred a 50 basis point increase” in benchmark interest rates at the March meeting.
The meeting minutes reaffirmed other, more recent remarks from monetary policymakers. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Tuesday that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was “prepared to take stronger action” should already elevated indicators of inflation rates and expectations warrant such moves.
Speaking in a webcast, Brainard suggested this could include aggressive interest rate hikes and a much quicker drawdown of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — which has thus far ballooned to nearly $9 trillion — than in previous periods.
“Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017–19,” Brainard said. She noted the process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet holdings, or beginning quantitative tightening, could begin as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in May.
Other Fed members also suggested they were on board with more policy tightening in the near-term. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the case for a 50 basis-point interest rate hike — or a hike double the size of the central bank’s typical per-meeting increase — “has grown.”
“The fact is, the Fed has made it very clear … it’s paramount that they go after inflation and do whatever it takes to staunch the rise in inflation,” Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, told Yahoo Finance Live. “They’re going to do it, and I think the market is getting the sense that this is going to be a choppy path.”
“The Fed may go until it breaks something … but it’s clear that this is their mission, and they are going to go ahead with it, full steam – more than 2017, more than 2018,” she added, referring to the last time the Federal Reserve underwent quantitative tightening several years ago.
With inflation rates in the U.S. still holding at around 40-year highs and forcing the Fed’s hand in aggressively tightening financial conditions, some on Wall Street have downgraded their expectations for U.S. and global growth. Deutsche Bank economists said Tuesday they expected the U.S. to tip into a recession at the end of next year as the Fed rapidly hikes rates to address high prices.
“We now expect the U.S. economy to be in outright recession by late next year, and the [Euro area] in a growth recession in 2024 with unemployment edging up,” Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper said. “Our baseline view is that these developments will spill over to damp growth in much of the rest of the world and at the same time help to bring inflation back toward mandated levels, diminishing the risk of greater disruptions further down the road.”
Still, the economists noted their call for a recession next year “is currently way out of consensus” — and indeed, many on Wall Street still see a slowdown, but not necessarily a period of negative growth in the near-term domestically.
“We’re not thinking that the Fed is going to push the economy into recession,” Veronica Willis, Wells Fargo Investment Institute investment strategy analyst, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “I think most are not expecting that. But we are expecting kind of a slowdown in economic growth from what we had expected previously, but still around average economic growth here in the U.S.”
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4:02 p.m. ET: Stocks fall, tech shares lag for a second straight day after more hawkish Fed commentary: Nasdaq declines by 2.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:02 p.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -43.86 (-0.97{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,481.26
Dow (^DJI): -143.95 (-0.42{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,497.23
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -315.35 (-2.22{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 13,888.82
Crude (CL=F): -$4.65 (-4.56{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $97.31 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$0.10 (+0.01{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,927.60 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +5.3 bps to yield 2.6090{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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2:31 p.m. ET: Stocks extend declines after Fed minutes
Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday afternoon
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -50.7 (-1.12{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,474.42
Dow (^DJI): -226.28 (-0.65{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,414.90
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -305.88 (-2.15{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 13,893.13
Crude (CL=F): -$5.73 (-5.62{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $96.23 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$6.30 (-0.33{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,921.20 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +5.7 bps to yield 2.611{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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2:09 p.m. ET: Fed offers more details on balance sheet rundown process, saying it will reduce assets ‘in a predictable manner’
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 15 and 16 meeting shed more light on how central bank officials were thinking about beginning the balance sheet runoff process this year.
“Participants reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings should be reduced over time in a predictable manner,” according to the minutes.
While the Fed has not yet voted on how and when to begin the process of unwinding its balance sheet, some Fed officials suggested this would occur in the near-term. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, once considered a “dove” on the committee, suggested earlier this week the process could be announced as soon as May.
The Fed minutes also noted that, “participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60 billion for Treasury securities and about $35 billion for agency MBS [mortgage-backed securities] would likely be appropriate.”
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices fell below $45,000 for the first time since last week on Wednesday, bringing shares of cryptocurrency-linked stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) lower as well.
Bitcoin prices have been on a roller-coaster ride this year, tracking the volatility across other risk assets as geopolitical and monetary policy concerns increased. Prices began the year around $48,000 for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, but dipped as low as below $35,000 so far this year.
Other major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH-USD), XRP (XRP-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) also dipped Wednesday morning.
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9:39 a.m. ET: JetBlue shares drop after airline makes competing bid for Spirit
JetBlue (JBLU) shares dropped Wednesday morning after the carrier made an offer to purchase Spirit Airlines (SAVE) — less than two months after the budget airline agreed to merge with Frontier Group (ULCC).
JetBlue stepped in with $3.6 billion offer to buy Spirit Airlines, with the all-cash deal coming out to $33 per outstanding Spirit share. The combined company would have a fleet of 450 aircraft with another 312 Airbus aircraft to be delivered over the next six years, and would bring more flights to hubs including New York and Florida, where both airlines already operate.
However, in February, Frontier Group made its own bid to buy Spirit for $2.9 billion, in a deal the companies said at the time would save customers about $1 billion per year. JetBlue said in its press release this morning that its offer was a “superior proposal” and that it would be “more effective than Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers in Introducing Competition and Bringing Down Legacy Carrier Fares.”
Wall Street, however, has expressed skepticism over a JetBlue-Spirit tie-up.
“The merits of a potential JetBlue-Spirit merger are not as abundantly clear to us as are those that could stem from other combinations among remaining, non-Big 3 airlines,” JPMorgan airline analyst Jamie Baker wrote in a note this morning.
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9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower, Treasury yields surge
Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday morning:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -36.19 (-0.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,488.93
Dow (^DJI): -229.02 (-0.66{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,412.16
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -178.10 (-1.27{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 14,023.64
Crude (CL=F): +$0.51 (+0.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $102.57 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$2.20 (+0.11{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,929.70 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +7.7 bps to yield 2.631{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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8:00 a.m. ET: Mortgage applications fall for fourth straight week as rates rise further
U.S. mortgage applications dropped for a fourth consecutive week into the beginning of April, with fast-rising mortgage rates deterring homeowners from refinancing and new buyers from coming into the market.
The Mortgage Bankers Associations’ weekly index showed mortgage applications fell 6.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} week-on-week during the period ending April 1. This came following a 6.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} drop during the prior week.
Refinances fell 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from the previous week and by 62{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from the same week last year, bringing overall applications for refinances down to the lowest level since spring 2019. Purchases fell 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} week-over-week on a seasonally unadjusted basis, and declined 9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} from the comparable period last year.
“Mortgage application volume continues to decline due to rapidly rising mortgage rates, as financial markets expect significantly tighter monetary policy in the coming months. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the fourth consecutive week to 4.90{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and is now more than 1.5 percentage points higher than a year ago,” Joel Kan, MBA associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a press statement Wednesday.”
“The hot job market and rapid wage growth continue to support housing demand, despite the surge in rates and swift home-price appreciation,” Kan added. “However, insufficient for-sale inventory is restraining purchase activity.”
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7:16 a.m. ET: Stock futures fall
Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday morning:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -38 points (-0.84{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,482.25
Dow futures (YM=F): -214 points (-0.62{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,336.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -203 points (-1.37{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 14,625.00
Crude (CL=F): +$1.42 (+1.39{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $103.38 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$4.70 (-0.24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,922.80 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +8.3 bps to yield 2.637{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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6:10 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures edge higher
Here’s where markets were trading Tuesday evening as the overnight session began:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +5.25 points (+0.12{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,525.50
Dow futures (YM=F): +34 points (+0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,584.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +25.75 points (+0.17{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 14,853.75
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
U.S. equity futures stumbled in pre-market trading Tuesday after a rally in tech led stocks higher to start the week. Investors are monitoring the war in Ukraine and bracing for the possibility of new sanctions against Russia.
Contracts on the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq Composite were each down roughly 0.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} ahead of the open after all three benchmarks closed in the green Monday. The Nasdaq — which gained 1.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in the main session — was buoyed by a 27{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} surge in Twitter (TWTR) that came after Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk revealed he purchased a 9.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} stake in the social media company.
Musk is “speaking with his money by saying that Twitter is an undervalued platform,” MKM Partners’ Rohit Kulkarni told Yahoo Finance Live. “He sees there are things they can do to improve the service, and he’s definitely hinting at a more active role.”
Wedbush Securities analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives also told Yahoo Finance he predicts Musk will have an active stake in the social media platform over the coming weeks or months, and that his recent snap up of shares was “just the appetizer.”
Separately, Musk’s own company, electric-vehicle giant Tesla, contributed to the gains that propelled a take-off for tech during Monday’s trading session. Shares of the EV carmaker jumped nearly 6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} after it reported vehicle delivery figures this weekend that came in higher than the same period last year.
Recession jitters were at bay on Monday after a closely-monitored portion of the Treasury yield curve inverted last week and spooked investors over the possibility of an imminent economic contraction. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession, with each of the last eight slowdowns dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion. As of Monday morning, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note remained below that on the shorter-term 2-year note.
Still, worries about an economic downturn were not completely off the table for strategists.
Nomura Chief U.S. economist Robert Dent told Yahoo Finance Live he sees the potential for a “mild recession”
“We think that the cumulative risk of a recession between now and the end of 2024 stands at about 35{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} to 40{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a},” he said. “A lot of that is just coming from what we think is going to be this very aggressive response from the Fed to actually get inflation under control and make sure the labor market actually cools down.”
Uncertainty around the crisis in Eastern Europe also continues to be a headwind for investors. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in his widely-read shareholder letter warned that the war in Ukraine is likely to meaningfully slow the U.S. and global economy. In the U.S. specifically, the bank estimates the U.S. economy will grow roughly 2.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, a downgrade from the institution’s initial GDP forecast of 3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, with larger cuts to forecasts on Russia and Europe’s economic outlooks.
“We do not know what its outcome ultimately will be, but the hostilities in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia are already having a substantial economic impact,” said Dimon, adding that “many more” sanctions could be imposed on Russia and spur further unpredictability.
The European Union addressed apparent war crimes in Ukraine on Monday, indicating in a statement that officials would, “work on further sanctions against Russia” over the country’s targeted attacks on civilians. Some major European officials including Germany’s defense minister said they would support banning Russian natural gas — a move previously excluded from sanctions as Russia supplies about 40{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of Europe’s gas energy.
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7:50 a.m. ET: US stops Russian bond payments in move aimed to ramp up pressure on Moscow
The United States stopped the Russian government on Monday from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600 million from reserves held at U.S. banks in a bid to place pressure on Moscow.
Foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at U.S. financial institutions were frozen on Feb. 24 as part of sanctions placed on Moscow for over its invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Treasury Department, however, had been permitting the Russian government to use funds to make coupon payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis.
On Monday, the U.S. government moved to cut off Moscow’s access to the frozen funds as a $552.4 million principal payment on a maturing bond came due.
Here were the main moves in futures trading ahead of Tuesday’s open:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -10.50 points (-0.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,567.25
Dow futures (YM=F): -83.00 points (-0.24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,746.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -37.75 points (-0.25{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,126.50
Crude (CL=F): +$1.28 (+1.24{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $104.56 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$1.70 (-0.09{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,932.30 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): 0.00 bps to yield 2.4120{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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6:12 p.m. ET Monday: Futures open little changed after stocks close higher
Here’s where markets were trading ahead of the overnight session on Monday:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -2.25 points (-0.05{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,575.75
Dow futures (YM=F): -14.00 points (-0.04{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 34,815.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -9.25 points (-0.06{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,155.00
Crude (CL=F): +$0.43 (+0.42{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $103.71 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$3.30 (+0.01{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,937.30 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.5 bps to yield 2.4120{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
Screens display the trading information for Twitter on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 4, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
U.S. stock futures drifted slightly lower after rallying on Tuesday, as investors cheered upbeat developments on discussions between Russia and Ukraine.
Contracts on the S&P 500 declined. The blue-chip index had risen for a fourth consecutive day and closed at its highest level since January earlier Tuesday, unwinding some losses for the year-to-date. Technology stocks led the way higher and helped pull the Nasdaq Composite up by nearly 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. As of Wednesday morning, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, held below 20, or near its lowest level in more than two months.
U.S. crude oil prices rose for the first time in three sessions Wednesday after dipping earlier this week amid signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks. Russia said it was easing military action in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and northern city Chernihiv and was prepared to set a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy following a draft peace agreement.
Meanwhile, investors nervously eyed a flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve, with longer-duration bond yields falling much more sharply than those on the short end as traders bet on higher rates from the Federal Reserve in the near-term and mulled a murky macroeconomic outlook over the longer-term. The benchmark 10-year yield edged higher Wednesday morning and topped 2.4{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
The spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields — a closely watched part of the yield curve which has typically inverted ahead of recessions — narrowed to its lowest level since 2019 earlier this week. (It inverted for a few seconds on Tuesday.)
“It is still a pretty accurate indicator [of a recession] if we go back and look at history, but I have to give you a few caveats,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco chief global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “First of all, it needs to invert for some time, typically three months, to be a very accurate indicator. Second, it’s a longer-term indicator. So usually after the yield curve inverts, it takes about 18 months on average for a recession to occur. And it is a terrible, terrible sell signal, because typically stocks have room to run and do run significantly higher after a yield curve inverts.”
The latest batch of U.S. economic data offered a mixed picture on the state of the economy amid still-elevated inflation, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and tightening monetary policy out of the Federal Reserve. Job openings held little changed at about 11.3 million in March, far outpacing new hires at 6.7 million to reflect persistently rampant labor supply shortages. And while the Conference Board’s latest monthly index showed a slight uptick in consumer confidence in March, the index remained below last year’s average. Plus, consumers’ one-year inflation expectations soared to an all-time high of 7.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.
“We expect a clear downshift in inflation expectations in the second half of the year, but they could easily rise further in the near-term,” Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Tuesday.
“The survey sends mixed signals on the state of the economy but, always, remember that sentiment is not the same as spending, which is what matters,” he added.
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7:30 a.m. ET: Stock futures decline after S&P 500 posts four straight days of gains
Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday morning:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -10.5 points (-0.23{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,615.00
Dow futures (YM=F): -77 points (-0.22{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,113.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -50.25 points (-0.33{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,187.50
Crude (CL=F): +$2.79 (+2.68{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $107.03 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$10.60 (+0.55{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to $1,928.60 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +1.3 bps to yield 2.413{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}
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7:20 a.m. ET: Mortgage applications fall for third straight week as mortgage rates rise by most in 11 years
U.S. mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week last week, with refinances especially coming under pressures as mortgage rates jumped by the most in over a decade.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly index showed a 6.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} decrease in application volume for the week ended March 25. This followed a drop of 8.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} for the prior period, and coincided with a rise in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 4.8{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from 4.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} previously. That marked the biggest weekly increase since 2011 to bring rates to their highest level since the end of 2018.
Refinances fell by 15{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} compared to the prior week and slumped 60{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} over the same period last year. On an unadjusted basis, purchases were still higher by 1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} week-on-week, but down by 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} compared to the same week last year.
“Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in more than three years last week, as investors continue to price in the impact of a more restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Not surprisingly, refinance application volume declined further, as fewer borrowers have an incentive to apply at rates that are significantly higher than a year ago,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA senior vice president and chief economist, said in a press statement.
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6:12 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures open slightly lower
Here’s where the major stock index futures opened Tuesday evening:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -4.75 points (-0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 4,620.75
Dow futures (YM=F): -24 points (-0.07{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 35,166.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -15.5 points (-0.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}) to 15,222.25
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 28: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 28, 2022 in New York City. Following a positive week for stocks, the Dow Industrial Average was down over 100 points in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
