Struggling Chinese Developer Warns It Could Run Out of Money | Business News

Struggling Chinese Developer Warns It Could Run Out of Money | Business News

By JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer

BEIJING (AP) — A Chinese developer that is struggling under $310 billion in debt warned Friday it may run out of money to “perform its financial obligations” — sending regulators scrambling to reassure investors that China’s financial markets can be protected from a potential impact.

Evergrande Group’s struggle to comply with official pressure to reduce debt has fueled anxiety that a possible default might trigger a financial crisis. Economists say global markets are unlikely to be affected but banks and bondholders might suffer because Beijing wants to avoid a bailout.

After reviewing Evergrande’s finances, “there is no guarantee that the Group will have sufficient funds to continue to perform its financial obligations,” the company said in a statement through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Shortly after that, regulators tried to soothe investor fears by issuing statements saying China’s financial system was strong and that default rates are low. They said most developers are financially healthy and that Beijing will keep lending markets functioning.

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“The spillover impact of the group’s risk events on the stable operation of the capital market is controllable,” the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on its website. The central bank and bank regulator issued similar statements.

Beijing tightened restrictions on developers’ use of borrowed money last year in a campaign to rein in surging corporate debt that is seen as a threat to economic stability.

The ruling Communist Party has made reducing financial risk a priority since 2018. In 2014, authorities allowed the first corporate bond default since the 1949 communist revolution. Defaults have gradually been allowed to increase in hopes of forcing borrowers and investors to be more disciplined.

Despite that, total corporate, government and household debt rose from the equivalent of 270{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} of annual economic output in 2018 to nearly 300{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} last year, unusually high for a middle-income country. Economists say a financial crisis is unlikely but debt could drag on economic growth.

Evergrande, the global real estate industry’s biggest debtor, owes 2 trillion yuan ($310 billion), mostly to domestic banks and bond investors. It also owes $19 billion to foreign bondholders.

Evergrande said it has 2.3 trillion yuan ($350 billion) in assets, but the company has struggled to turn that into cash to pay bondholders and other creditors. It called off the $2.6 billion sale of a stake in a subsidiary last October because the buyer failed to follow through on its purchase.

Evergrande’s statement Friday said the company faces a demand to fulfill a $260 million obligation. It said if that obligation cannot be met, other creditors might demand repayment of debts earlier than normal.

The company has missed deadlines to pay interest on some bonds but made payments before a grace period ended and was declared in default. Evergrande also said some bondholders can choose to be paid by receiving apartments that are under construction.

The Evergrande chairman, Xu Jiayin, was summoned to meet Friday with officials of its home province of Guangdong, a government statement said. The statement said a government team would be sent to Evergrande headquarters to help oversee risk management.

Evergrande’s struggle has prompted warnings that a financial squeeze on real estate — an industry that propelled China’s explosive 1998-2008 economic boom — could lead to trouble for banks and an abrupt and politically dangerous collapse in growth.

Also Friday, another developer, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., warned it might fail to pay off a $400 million bond due next week.

A midsize developer, Fantasia Holdings Group, announced Oct. 5 that it failed to make a $205.7 million payment due to bondholders.

Hundreds of smaller Chinese developers have gone bankrupt since regulators began tightening control over the industry’s finances in 2017.

The slowdown in construction helped to depress China’s economic growth an unexpectedly low 4.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} over a year earlier in the three months ending in September. Forecasters expect growth to decelerate further if the financing curbs stay in place.

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Bitcoin bull run shows signs of wear as crypto investors eye other coins; Omicron, Fed taper loom

Bitcoin bull run shows signs of wear as crypto investors eye other coins; Omicron, Fed taper loom

The volatile but never boring market for Bitcoin (BTC) has been whipsawed in recent days, as investors ponder whether there are better returns to be had in other cryptocurrencies, even as a new COVID-19 variant and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook shake up the landscape.

With news of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 unsettling investors, Bitcoin shed over 2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on Tuesday as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropped several hints that the central bank is growing more attentive to inflationary risks, and may even accelerate its plans to pull back on stimulative bond purchases.

In theory, the rise of a new variant would prompt the Fed to err on the side of more stimulus, which should benefit cryptocurrencies. Still, Bitcoin sold off sharply along with other risk assets last week, and has yet to challenge its record high near $68,000 set earlier this month, off by more than 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} since hitting that peak.

To be certain, Bitcoin is still firmly entrenched in bull market territory. However, other crypto assets, some notably smaller and higher-risk, are seeing growing investment flows, and may be drawing money away from Bitcoin holdings.

Jon Wolfenbarger, a veteran equities analyst, told Yahoo Finance this week that he’s using the 250 day-moving average (DMA) to judge whether crypto and other assets might begin long term turns for the worse. 

While stocks, bonds and commodities still traded above their 250 DMAs on Friday, Wolfenbarger cautioned that “there has been enough damage done recently to tell us that we need to be very vigilant for continued weakness that could trip bear market signal,” even if the larger uptrend remains intact, he said. 

During the downturn, notable Bitcoin whales like El Salvador, the largest nation state holder of BTC, which is planning to issue sovereign BTC bonds; and MicroStrategy, the largest publicly listed U.S. company, both used the recent correction as a buying opportunity. 

‘Further down the risk-curve’

A recent trend indicates more investors are hunting for crypto trading opportunities outside Bitcoin.

Ether (ETH) — a major “Web 3.0” contender integral to the boom in nonfungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance and the Metaverse — has logged gains higher than BTC, roughly doubling its performance over the last week. 

Meanwhile, higher risk meme-coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Shiba Inu coin (SHIB-USD) are posting even larger gains. The latter is up over 16{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} on the day, coinciding with its listing today on the U.S. based cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken.

At least a few crypto investors consider Bitcoin safe haven asset of sorts, largely because of stimulative government policies that feed inflation and devaluation, but its price action suggests its more closely linked to other risk-sensitive assets. Added to that, data suggests that money is rotating out of Bitcoin into other speculative cryptos. 

This pattern is best captured in the ether/bitcoin trading pair, which is trading near levels not seen since 2018, according to Trading View

“A break-out of ETH/BTC would further support the thesis of an observable rotation out of BTC and into more speculative alts[coins],” the asset manager Fundstrat wrote in a research note Monday.

Beyond speculation, ETH is also used to pay transaction fees on the Ethereum blockchain. Its price action relative to Bitcoin also shows why lesser known cryptocurrencies built on top of Ethereum, especially within DeFi, are seeing the most significant gains over the last few weeks.

“When the market is moving and certain sectors are doing well, as they are currently in DeFi assets, then traders add risk and allocate out of the safe haven [bitcoin]” said Bryan Hernandez, President of the DeFi trading app, Structure.

And the initial buying in these smaller cryptocurrencies is much more speculative according to Hernandez. 

“Because smaller DeFi assets tend to be less liquid, they are more affected by moves from powerful players like big VC funds or certain market makers,” he added. “The access to credit that these players have gives them an ability to really push the price to new levels that then create awareness and FOMO buying.”

Other cryptocurrencies connected to the metaverse via virtual platforms The Sandbox and Decentraland, have seen swings of more than 50{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} and 25{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, respectively, over the last several days.

Contrary to a speculative frenzy, the rotation from Bitcoin to smaller cryptocurrencies suggests a degree of market health according to Mark Elenowitz, president and CEO of the fintech firm, Horizon Fintex.

“Investors are willing to go further down the risk curve for yet-to-be-built projects (i.e. the metaverse) because, again, they view the overall market structure at the moment as trending green.” said Elenowitz.

If the new Omicron-variant does shape buyer demand long term, some investors see a path for Bitcoin to rise in value as an inflation hedge. Yet Craig Erlam, Oanda senior analyst, isn’t so certain. 

First, it isn’t clear yet whether central banks will stall tapering enough to change investment growth, the analyst argues. Secondly, higher levels of inflation might cause the market to react in a markedly different way than they have during the early days of the pandemic.

“Everything is hypothetical at this point,” Erlam told Yahoo Finance. “But it’s always too convenient to try to pin [Bitcoin] down to one narrative.”

David Hollerith covers cryptocurrency for Yahoo Finance. Follow him @dshollers.

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