USDA forecasts higher US sugar production

WASHINGTON — The US Office of Agriculture in its Jan. 12 Planet Agricultural Source and Need Estimates (WASDE) report raised from December its forecast of 2022-23 US beet and cane sugar generation, slightly decreased imports and left deliveries unchanged, resulting in a soar in the shares-to-use ratio. 

The most major change in the WASDE report was the US sugar production forecast at 9,248,000 limited tons, uncooked benefit, up 209,000 tons, or 2.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from the December forecast and up 92,000 tons, or 1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from 2021-22, which was approximated at 9,156,000 tons, up 19,259 tons from the prior month thanks to a like boost in cane sugar output in Louisiana. Beet sugar output in 2022-23 was forecast at 5,048,318 tons, up 120,819 tons, or 2.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from December, and cane sugar was forecast at 4,199,000 tons, up 88,216 tons, or 2.1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}.

If recognized, 2022-23 cane sugar creation would be the optimum on file, and total sugar production would be the 2nd optimum on record after 9,293,000 tons in 2017-18. US Winter Wheat Planted Area

“Because September creation in Louisiana is a product of the 2022-23 sugar cane harvest, Louisiana creation in 2022-23 is modified downward by the September 2022 volume but partially offset by an boost in projected output in September 2023,” the USDA explained. “More substantially, Louisiana creation is amplified thanks to the January NASS (the USDA’s Countrywide Agricultural Data Provider) forecast of sugar cane for sugar production growing by 5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} over last month to 15,818,000 tons. Sucrose recovery is unchanged at 13.48{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. Output (Louisiana) for the fiscal 2022-23 calendar year is now 2,112,885 tons, up 88,216 tons above final thirty day period. Fears about problems to the 20{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} or so of Louisiana’s sugar cane crop still in the industry when freezing temperatures protected most of the condition in late December did not appear to be borne out.

“NASS tasks 2022-23 sugar beet production at 32,574,000 tons, a 2.65{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} reduction, centered on reduce area harvested and generate. Decrease sugar beet manufacturing is extra than offset by an enhance in sucrose recovery. Based mostly on sugar manufacturing information for August by means of November in the (USDA’s) Sweetener Sector Details, USDA initiatives sucrose recovery at 15{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}. This is up from final month’s 14.626{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} that was dependent on historical trend.”

Sugar imports in 2022-23 have been forecast at 3,458,000 tons, down 35,480 tons from December. Tariff-amount quota imports were being forecast at 1,606,000 tons, down 85,943 tons, other system imports at 250,000 tons, unchanged, and imports from Mexico at 1,477,000 tons, unchanged.

“Sugar below the 2021-22 TRQ permitted to enter by the extension of the quota 12 months to close of December was 164,225 tons and below that approximated final month by 85,943,” the USDA reported.

Superior-tier imports in 2022-23 ended up forecast at 125,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from December. The improve in 2022-23 significant-tier imports reflected “the tempo of superior-tier tariff refined sugar imports for the relaxation of the 12 months and an boost in raw sugar large-tier imports recorded by Customs in December,” the USDA explained.

Whole 2022-23 sugar provide was forecast at 14,525,000 tons, up 178,027 tons, or 1.2{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from December and up 19,000 tons, or .1{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from 14,506,000 tons in 2021-22.

Forecast deliveries in 2022-23 have been unchanged from November, including deliveries for foods at 12,500,000 tons. Exports ended up forecast at 35,000 tons and “other” at 105,000 tons, both equally unchanged. 

Ending stocks in 2022-23 had been forecast at 1,885,000 tons, up 178,000 tons, or 10{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from December and up 66,000 tons, or 3.6{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, from 2021-22. The recent-yr ending shares-to-use ratio was forecast at 14.9{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a}, up from 13.5{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in December and up from 14.3{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} in 2021-22.

There have been no improvements to import or shipping estimates for 2021-22. Miscellaneous changes have been estimated at 81,000 tons, up 15,000 tons, partially offsetting better cane sugar output, ensuing in ending shares at 1,819,000 tons, up 4,472 tons from December.

Variations from December to Mexico’s provide-and-demand forecasts for 2022-23 ended up minimal, with domestic use reduced 759 tonnes, actual excess weight, exports lifted 759 tonnes and ending stocks unchanged at 971,000 tonnes. There were no adjustments to 2021-22 estimates for Mexico.

“USDA estimates that the sugar creation campaign as a result of the finish of December is at minimum 15{1b90e59fe8a6c14b55fbbae1d9373c165823754d058ebf80beecafc6dee5063a} at the rear of the speed founded more than the previous nine years,” the USDA said in WASDE remarks relating to forecasts for Mexico. “Although there is some self confidence that the pace will be accelerated, the evidence to date is lacking. The speed of the marketing campaign will continue to be carefully monitored.”

Christopher Lewis

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